{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/liammcgrath/Documents/Academic/Research/reserves/replication_materials/replication_main_log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}17 Dec 2015, 00:32:22
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Set working directory to where the data is stored
. cd "/Users/liammcgrath/Documents/Academic/Research/reserves/replication_materials/data/"
{res}/Users/liammcgrath/Documents/Academic/Research/reserves/replication_materials/data
{txt}
{com}. 
. use "reserves_data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Set working directory to where marginal effects are saved
. cd "/Users/liammcgrath/Documents/Academic/Research/reserves/replication_materials/output/"
{res}/Users/liammcgrath/Documents/Academic/Research/reserves/replication_materials/output
{txt}
{com}. 
. *set more off
. 
. *** Figure 1: The difference over time in the mean reserve holdings for countries who experienced a political change during the previous currency crisis and those who did not ***
. 
. * Generate a variable that = 0 if no political change during prev. currency crisis
. * and = 1 if there was either form of political change during prev. currency crisis
. gen sum_polit_any = sum_polit11_binary + sum_polit12_binary
{txt}(6109 missing values generated)

{com}. replace sum_polit_any = 1 if sum_polit_any == 2
{txt}(608 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * Estimate difference in means for the first year after a crisis
. reg fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit_any if currency_dur == 1 & currency_binary == 0

      {txt}Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}     154
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,   152) ={res}    4.83
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 29.8899967     1  29.8899967           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.0295
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 940.668827   152   6.1886107           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0308
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res} 0.0244
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 970.558824   153  6.34352172           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.4877

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .8829785{col 27}{space 2} .4017758{col 38}{space 1}    2.20{col 47}{space 3}0.029{col 55}{space 4} .0891925{col 68}{space 3} 1.676764
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.187939{col 27}{space 2} .2931773{col 38}{space 1}   10.87{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}  2.60871{col 68}{space 3} 3.767167
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * store results
. mat point = e(b)
{txt}
{com}. mat var = e(V)
{txt}
{com}. gen diff = point[1,1] if _n == 1
{txt}(8128 missing values generated)

{com}. gen diff_se = sqrt(var[1,1]) if _n == 1
{txt}(8128 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Run a loop to do so up until 10 years after a currency crisis
. local i = 2
{txt}
{com}. while `i' < 11 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}. 
. reg fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit_any if currency_dur == `i' & currency_binary == 0
{txt}  3{com}. 
. mat point = e(b)
{txt}  4{com}. mat var = e(V)
{txt}  5{com}. replace diff = point[1,1] if _n == `i'
{txt}  6{com}. replace diff_se = sqrt(var[1,1]) if _n == `i'
{txt}  7{com}. 
. local i = `i' + 1
{txt}  8{com}. {c )-}

      {txt}Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}     135
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,   133) ={res}    4.00
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 26.9591329     1  26.9591329           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.0476
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 897.295084   133  6.74657958           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0292
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res} 0.0219
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 924.254217   134  6.89741953           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.5974

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .8967318{col 27}{space 2} .4485919{col 38}{space 1}    2.00{col 47}{space 3}0.048{col 55}{space 4} .0094344{col 68}{space 3} 1.784029
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.200842{col 27}{space 2} .3298724{col 38}{space 1}    9.70{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.548367{col 68}{space 3} 3.853317
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}     111
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,   109) ={res}    0.46
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 2.39141077     1  2.39141077           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.4970
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 561.132063   109  5.14800057           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0042
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res}-0.0049
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 563.523473   110  5.12294067           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.2689

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2970638{col 27}{space 2} .4358548{col 38}{space 1}    0.68{col 47}{space 3}0.497{col 55}{space 4}-.5667864{col 68}{space 3} 1.160914
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.556216{col 27}{space 2} .3309561{col 38}{space 1}   10.75{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.900272{col 68}{space 3}  4.21216
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      95
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    93) ={res}    1.52
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 9.51415266     1  9.51415266           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.2206
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 581.688319    93   6.2547131           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0161
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res} 0.0055
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 591.202471    94  6.28938799           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.5009

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .6433104{col 27}{space 2} .5216019{col 38}{space 1}    1.23{col 47}{space 3}0.221{col 55}{space 4}-.3924877{col 68}{space 3} 1.679108
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.475184{col 27}{space 2} .4004713{col 38}{space 1}    8.68{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.679927{col 68}{space 3} 4.270441
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      85
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    83) ={res}    0.52
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 2.96373801     1  2.96373801           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.4744
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 476.287402    83  5.73840243           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0062
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res}-0.0058
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res}  479.25114    84  5.70537071           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.3955

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3811578{col 27}{space 2} .5303718{col 38}{space 1}    0.72{col 47}{space 3}0.474{col 55}{space 4}-.6737304{col 68}{space 3} 1.436046
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.755651{col 27}{space 2} .4108242{col 38}{space 1}    9.14{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.938539{col 68}{space 3} 4.572764
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      69
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    67) ={res}    0.33
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 2.30492606     1  2.30492606           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.5704
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res}  474.84648    67   7.0872609           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0048
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res}-0.0100
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 477.151406    68  7.01693244           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.6622

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3686889{col 27}{space 2} .6465034{col 38}{space 1}    0.57{col 47}{space 3}0.570{col 55}{space 4}-.9217373{col 68}{space 3} 1.659115
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  3.82648{col 27}{space 2} .4860474{col 38}{space 1}    7.87{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.856325{col 68}{space 3} 4.796634
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      60
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    58) ={res}    1.39
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} 10.3204194     1  10.3204194           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.2439
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 431.826104    58  7.44527765           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0233
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res} 0.0065
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 442.146523    59  7.49400887           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.7286

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .8412407{col 27}{space 2} .7145161{col 38}{space 1}    1.18{col 47}{space 3}0.244{col 55}{space 4}-.5890188{col 68}{space 3}   2.2715
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.796072{col 27}{space 2} .5457207{col 38}{space 1}    6.96{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.703693{col 68}{space 3}  4.88845
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      55
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    53) ={res}    0.03
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} .171757988     1  .171757988           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.8640
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 307.436503    53  5.80068874           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0006
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res}-0.0183
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 307.608261    54  5.69644928           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.4085

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1132924{col 27}{space 2} .6583885{col 38}{space 1}    0.17{col 47}{space 3}0.864{col 55}{space 4}-1.207268{col 68}{space 3} 1.433852
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.912267{col 27}{space 2}  .502199{col 38}{space 1}    7.79{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.904984{col 68}{space 3} 4.919551
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      45
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    43) ={res}    0.06
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} .408994377     1  .408994377           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.8044
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 283.175137    43  6.58546831           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0014
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res}-0.0218
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 283.584132    44   6.4450939           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.5662

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1991618{col 27}{space 2} .7991726{col 38}{space 1}    0.25{col 47}{space 3}0.804{col 55}{space 4}-1.412523{col 68}{space 3} 1.810847
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.803256{col 27}{space 2} .6415542{col 38}{space 1}    5.93{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.509439{col 68}{space 3} 5.097074
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Source {c |}       SS       df       MS              Number of obs ={res}      39
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           F(  1,    37) ={res}    0.00
    {txt}   Model {char |} {res} .001663557     1  .001663557           {txt}Prob > F      = {res} 0.9878
    {txt}Residual {char |} {res} 261.703262    37  7.07306114           {txt}R-squared     = {res} 0.0000
{txt}{hline 13}{char +}{hline 30}           Adj R-squared = {res}-0.0270
    {txt}   Total {char |} {res} 261.704926    38  6.88697173           {txt}Root MSE      = {res} 2.6595

{txt}{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}fi_res_totl~o{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
sum_polit_any {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0138546{col 27}{space 2}  .903395{col 38}{space 1}    0.02{col 47}{space 3}0.988{col 55}{space 4}-1.816597{col 68}{space 3} 1.844307
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 3.536621{col 27}{space 2} .7376189{col 38}{space 1}    4.79{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} 2.042063{col 68}{space 3} 5.031179
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. gen time = _n
{txt}
{com}. * Calculate 95% confidence intervals
. gen u = diff + diff_se * 1.96
{txt}(8119 missing values generated)

{com}. gen l = diff - diff_se * 1.96
{txt}(8119 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Graph that is displayed in the text as figure 1
. twoway  rcapsym u l time if diff != ., vertical msymbol(i) yline(0, lpattern(dash)) legend(off) xtitle("Time Since Currency Crisis") ytitle("Difference in Reserve Holdings (in months of imports)") || scatter diff time if diff != ., mcolor(black) msymbol(circle)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************
. *** Main regression analysis ***
. ********************************
. 
. * H1: the effect political change on reserve accumulation
. 
. * a) Unweighted major cabinet changes
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit11_binary polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1479
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6883                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6180                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5694                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}15{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   110.47
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6577                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 88:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 24}{c |}{col 36}    Robust
{col 1}    log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 24}{c |}      Coef.{col 36}   Std. Err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% Con{col 77}f. Interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .8101423{col 36}{space 2}  .039463{col 47}{space 1}   20.53{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .7311771{col 77}{space 3} .8891075
{txt}{space 4}sum_polit11_binary {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0512819{col 36}{space 2} .0272311{col 47}{space 1}    1.88{col 56}{space 3}0.065{col 64}{space 4}-.0032075{col 77}{space 3} .1057713
{txt}{space 15}polity2 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .005782{col 36}{space 2}  .002891{col 47}{space 1}    2.00{col 56}{space 3}0.050{col 64}{space 4}-2.85e-06{col 77}{space 3} .0115668
{txt}{space 9}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0162056{col 36}{space 2} .0293508{col 47}{space 1}   -0.55{col 56}{space 3}0.583{col 64}{space 4}-.0749365{col 77}{space 3} .0425253
{txt}{space 8}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0024391{col 36}{space 2} .0019864{col 47}{space 1}   -1.23{col 56}{space 3}0.224{col 64}{space 4}-.0064137{col 77}{space 3} .0015356
{txt}{space 9}trade_balance {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0148453{col 36}{space 2} .0038811{col 47}{space 1}    3.82{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .0070792{col 77}{space 3} .0226115
{txt}{space 13}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0181041{col 36}{space 2} .0147372{col 47}{space 1}    1.23{col 56}{space 3}0.224{col 64}{space 4}-.0113851{col 77}{space 3} .0475932
{txt}{space 10}presidential {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0934518{col 36}{space 2} .0652096{col 47}{space 1}    1.43{col 56}{space 3}0.157{col 64}{space 4}-.0370323{col 77}{space 3} .2239359
{txt}{space 13}log_gdppc {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1181426{col 36}{space 2} .0616391{col 47}{space 1}   -1.92{col 56}{space 3}0.060{col 64}{space 4}-.2414821{col 77}{space 3} .0051969
{txt}{space 12}gdp_growth {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.007238{col 36}{space 2} .0038937{col 47}{space 1}   -1.86{col 56}{space 3}0.068{col 64}{space 4}-.0150292{col 77}{space 3} .0005532
{txt}{space 15}log_pop {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3416849{col 36}{space 2} .2283227{col 47}{space 1}    1.50{col 56}{space 3}0.140{col 64}{space 4}-.1151878{col 77}{space 3} .7985575
{txt}{space 16}kaopen {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0148631{col 36}{space 2} .0127214{col 47}{space 1}   -1.17{col 56}{space 3}0.247{col 64}{space 4}-.0403185{col 77}{space 3} .0105922
{txt}{space 10}currency_peg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0318842{col 36}{space 2} .0365563{col 47}{space 1}    0.87{col 56}{space 3}0.387{col 64}{space 4}-.0412648{col 77}{space 3} .1050331
{txt}{space 7}currency_binary {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1239467{col 36}{space 2} .0294504{col 47}{space 1}   -4.21{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.1828769{col 77}{space 3}-.0650166
{txt}{space 12}time_trend {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0003605{col 36}{space 2} .0059822{col 47}{space 1}   -0.06{col 56}{space 3}0.952{col 64}{space 4}-.0123308{col 77}{space 3} .0116098
{txt}{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-4.601214{col 36}{space 2} 3.996023{col 47}{space 1}   -1.15{col 56}{space 3}0.254{col 64}{space 4}-12.59724{col 77}{space 3} 3.394809
{txt}{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
               sigma_u {c |} {res} .51896379
               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res}   .288996
                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .76329727{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab1
{txt}
{com}. 
. * b) Weighted major cabinet changes (Model 1, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo polity_frac_polit11 polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1477
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6872                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5861                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5365                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}15{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   106.74
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6910                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 88:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 24}{c |}{col 36}    Robust
{col 1}    log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 24}{c |}      Coef.{col 36}   Std. Err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% Con{col 77}f. Interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .808775{col 36}{space 2} .0400988{col 47}{space 1}   20.17{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .7285374{col 77}{space 3} .8890125
{txt}{space 3}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0556125{col 36}{space 2} .0228731{col 47}{space 1}    2.43{col 56}{space 3}0.018{col 64}{space 4} .0098435{col 77}{space 3} .1013814
{txt}{space 15}polity2 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0055491{col 36}{space 2} .0030236{col 47}{space 1}    1.84{col 56}{space 3}0.072{col 64}{space 4}-.0005011{col 77}{space 3} .0115993
{txt}{space 9}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  -.01554{col 36}{space 2} .0292834{col 47}{space 1}   -0.53{col 56}{space 3}0.598{col 64}{space 4}-.0741359{col 77}{space 3} .0430559
{txt}{space 8}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0025461{col 36}{space 2} .0019725{col 47}{space 1}   -1.29{col 56}{space 3}0.202{col 64}{space 4} -.006493{col 77}{space 3} .0014008
{txt}{space 9}trade_balance {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0146875{col 36}{space 2} .0038789{col 47}{space 1}    3.79{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .0069258{col 77}{space 3} .0224492
{txt}{space 13}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0163213{col 36}{space 2} .0144717{col 47}{space 1}    1.13{col 56}{space 3}0.264{col 64}{space 4}-.0126365{col 77}{space 3} .0452791
{txt}{space 10}presidential {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0956927{col 36}{space 2} .0651125{col 47}{space 1}    1.47{col 56}{space 3}0.147{col 64}{space 4}-.0345971{col 77}{space 3} .2259824
{txt}{space 13}log_gdppc {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1093976{col 36}{space 2} .0625236{col 47}{space 1}   -1.75{col 56}{space 3}0.085{col 64}{space 4}-.2345071{col 77}{space 3}  .015712
{txt}{space 12}gdp_growth {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0074192{col 36}{space 2} .0038703{col 47}{space 1}   -1.92{col 56}{space 3}0.060{col 64}{space 4}-.0151636{col 77}{space 3} .0003251
{txt}{space 15}log_pop {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3828297{col 36}{space 2}  .230073{col 47}{space 1}    1.66{col 56}{space 3}0.101{col 64}{space 4}-.0775454{col 77}{space 3} .8432047
{txt}{space 16}kaopen {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0133625{col 36}{space 2} .0126085{col 47}{space 1}   -1.06{col 56}{space 3}0.294{col 64}{space 4} -.038592{col 77}{space 3} .0118669
{txt}{space 10}currency_peg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0286692{col 36}{space 2} .0359458{col 47}{space 1}    0.80{col 56}{space 3}0.428{col 64}{space 4}-.0432581{col 77}{space 3} .1005966
{txt}{space 7}currency_binary {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.128085{col 36}{space 2} .0289484{col 47}{space 1}   -4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.1860106{col 77}{space 3}-.0701594
{txt}{space 12}time_trend {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0013214{col 36}{space 2} .0060683{col 47}{space 1}   -0.22{col 56}{space 3}0.828{col 64}{space 4} -.013464{col 77}{space 3} .0108212
{txt}{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-5.316749{col 36}{space 2} 4.032729{col 47}{space 1}   -1.32{col 56}{space 3}0.192{col 64}{space 4}-13.38622{col 77}{space 3} 2.752724
{txt}{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
               sigma_u {c |} {res} .56946051
               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res}  .2888929
                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .79531513{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab2
{txt}
{com}. 
. * c) Unweighted change in effective executive
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit12_binary polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1479
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6884                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6186                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5689                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}15{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   105.69
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6620                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 88:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 24}{c |}{col 36}    Robust
{col 1}    log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 24}{c |}      Coef.{col 36}   Std. Err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% Con{col 77}f. Interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .8111817{col 36}{space 2} .0400331{col 47}{space 1}   20.26{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .7310756{col 77}{space 3} .8912878
{txt}{space 4}sum_polit12_binary {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0573535{col 36}{space 2}  .026446{col 47}{space 1}    2.17{col 56}{space 3}0.034{col 64}{space 4} .0044351{col 77}{space 3} .1102719
{txt}{space 15}polity2 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .005695{col 36}{space 2} .0028398{col 47}{space 1}    2.01{col 56}{space 3}0.050{col 64}{space 4} .0000126{col 77}{space 3} .0113774
{txt}{space 9}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0229462{col 36}{space 2} .0322904{col 47}{space 1}   -0.71{col 56}{space 3}0.480{col 64}{space 4}-.0875592{col 77}{space 3} .0416668
{txt}{space 8}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0023268{col 36}{space 2} .0019343{col 47}{space 1}   -1.20{col 56}{space 3}0.234{col 64}{space 4}-.0061973{col 77}{space 3} .0015437
{txt}{space 9}trade_balance {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0149517{col 36}{space 2}  .003894{col 47}{space 1}    3.84{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .0071598{col 77}{space 3} .0227437
{txt}{space 13}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0182898{col 36}{space 2} .0145685{col 47}{space 1}    1.26{col 56}{space 3}0.214{col 64}{space 4}-.0108618{col 77}{space 3} .0474414
{txt}{space 10}presidential {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1043223{col 36}{space 2} .0646101{col 47}{space 1}    1.61{col 56}{space 3}0.112{col 64}{space 4}-.0249622{col 77}{space 3} .2336067
{txt}{space 13}log_gdppc {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1158363{col 36}{space 2} .0621632{col 47}{space 1}   -1.86{col 56}{space 3}0.067{col 64}{space 4}-.2402246{col 77}{space 3}  .008552
{txt}{space 12}gdp_growth {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0073428{col 36}{space 2} .0039167{col 47}{space 1}   -1.87{col 56}{space 3}0.066{col 64}{space 4}-.0151801{col 77}{space 3} .0004945
{txt}{space 15}log_pop {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3467288{col 36}{space 2} .2221866{col 47}{space 1}    1.56{col 56}{space 3}0.124{col 64}{space 4}-.0978656{col 77}{space 3} .7913231
{txt}{space 16}kaopen {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0144483{col 36}{space 2} .0124474{col 47}{space 1}   -1.16{col 56}{space 3}0.250{col 64}{space 4}-.0393555{col 77}{space 3}  .010459
{txt}{space 10}currency_peg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0298199{col 36}{space 2} .0355102{col 47}{space 1}    0.84{col 56}{space 3}0.404{col 64}{space 4}-.0412357{col 77}{space 3} .1008756
{txt}{space 7}currency_binary {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1251453{col 36}{space 2} .0294677{col 47}{space 1}   -4.25{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.1841099{col 77}{space 3}-.0661806
{txt}{space 12}time_trend {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.000454{col 36}{space 2} .0059487{col 47}{space 1}   -0.08{col 56}{space 3}0.939{col 64}{space 4}-.0123572{col 77}{space 3} .0114493
{txt}{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-4.692311{col 36}{space 2} 3.900356{col 47}{space 1}   -1.20{col 56}{space 3}0.234{col 64}{space 4}-12.49691{col 77}{space 3} 3.112285
{txt}{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
               sigma_u {c |} {res} .52105696
               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28892328
                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .76483926{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab3
{txt}
{com}. 
. * d) Weighted changes in effective executive (Model 2, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo polity_frac_polit12 polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1477
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6873                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5984                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5469                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}15{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   111.35
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6823                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 88:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 24}{c |}{col 36}    Robust
{col 1}    log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 24}{c |}      Coef.{col 36}   Std. Err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% Con{col 77}f. Interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .8077836{col 36}{space 2} .0405005{col 47}{space 1}   19.95{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .7267422{col 77}{space 3} .8888249
{txt}{space 3}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .067972{col 36}{space 2} .0270793{col 47}{space 1}    2.51{col 56}{space 3}0.015{col 64}{space 4} .0137864{col 77}{space 3} .1221576
{txt}{space 15}polity2 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0052205{col 36}{space 2} .0028942{col 47}{space 1}    1.80{col 56}{space 3}0.076{col 64}{space 4}-.0005707{col 77}{space 3} .0110118
{txt}{space 9}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0205339{col 36}{space 2} .0318707{col 47}{space 1}   -0.64{col 56}{space 3}0.522{col 64}{space 4} -.084307{col 77}{space 3} .0432393
{txt}{space 8}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0023355{col 36}{space 2} .0019748{col 47}{space 1}   -1.18{col 56}{space 3}0.242{col 64}{space 4}-.0062871{col 77}{space 3} .0016161
{txt}{space 9}trade_balance {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0147888{col 36}{space 2} .0039044{col 47}{space 1}    3.79{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .0069761{col 77}{space 3} .0226014
{txt}{space 13}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0157714{col 36}{space 2} .0144291{col 47}{space 1}    1.09{col 56}{space 3}0.279{col 64}{space 4}-.0131011{col 77}{space 3}  .044644
{txt}{space 10}presidential {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1095519{col 36}{space 2} .0638551{col 47}{space 1}    1.72{col 56}{space 3}0.091{col 64}{space 4}-.0182219{col 77}{space 3} .2373257
{txt}{space 13}log_gdppc {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1088131{col 36}{space 2} .0630365{col 47}{space 1}   -1.73{col 56}{space 3}0.090{col 64}{space 4}-.2349488{col 77}{space 3} .0173225
{txt}{space 12}gdp_growth {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0074049{col 36}{space 2} .0038839{col 47}{space 1}   -1.91{col 56}{space 3}0.061{col 64}{space 4}-.0151766{col 77}{space 3} .0003668
{txt}{space 15}log_pop {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3745843{col 36}{space 2} .2256961{col 47}{space 1}    1.66{col 56}{space 3}0.102{col 64}{space 4}-.0770326{col 77}{space 3} .8262013
{txt}{space 16}kaopen {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0129831{col 36}{space 2} .0126489{col 47}{space 1}   -1.03{col 56}{space 3}0.309{col 64}{space 4}-.0382934{col 77}{space 3} .0123273
{txt}{space 10}currency_peg {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0312461{col 36}{space 2} .0353213{col 47}{space 1}    0.88{col 56}{space 3}0.380{col 64}{space 4}-.0394317{col 77}{space 3} .1019238
{txt}{space 7}currency_binary {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1281664{col 36}{space 2} .0292296{col 47}{space 1}   -4.38{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.1866546{col 77}{space 3}-.0696781
{txt}{space 12}time_trend {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0012829{col 36}{space 2} .0060612{col 47}{space 1}   -0.21{col 56}{space 3}0.833{col 64}{space 4}-.0134114{col 77}{space 3} .0108456
{txt}{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-5.181015{col 36}{space 2} 3.964298{col 47}{space 1}   -1.31{col 56}{space 3}0.196{col 64}{space 4}-13.11356{col 77}{space 3} 2.751526
{txt}{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
               sigma_u {c |} {res} .55332764
               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28883753
                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .78586391{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab4
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Appendix Table 3
. **esttab tab1 tab2 tab3 tab4 using log_main.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f) scalars(ll) bic title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. 
. *** H2: multiple currency crises ***
. 
. * a) Unweighted major cabinet changes
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit11_binary##c.crises_reg_yr1_nor polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1479
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6888                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6373                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5860                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   116.54
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6365                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 105:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 40}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 41}{c |}{col 53}    Robust
{col 1}                     log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 41}{c |}      Coef.{col 53}   Std. Err.{col 65}      t{col 73}   P>|t|{col 81}     [95% Con{col 94}f. Interval]
{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 17}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .8083554{col 53}{space 2} .0381168{col 64}{space 1}   21.21{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4} .7320839{col 94}{space 3} .8846269
{txt}{space 19}1.sum_polit11_binary {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0232349{col 53}{space 2} .0437008{col 64}{space 1}    0.53{col 73}{space 3}0.597{col 81}{space 4}-.0642102{col 94}{space 3}   .11068
{txt}{space 21}crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0140681{col 53}{space 2} .0134944{col 64}{space 1}   -1.04{col 73}{space 3}0.301{col 81}{space 4}-.0410703{col 94}{space 3}  .012934
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
sum_polit11_binary#c.crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}
{space 37}1  {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0123115{col 53}{space 2} .0124246{col 64}{space 1}    0.99{col 73}{space 3}0.326{col 81}{space 4}-.0125501{col 94}{space 3}  .037173
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
{space 32}polity2 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0055591{col 53}{space 2} .0028229{col 64}{space 1}    1.97{col 73}{space 3}0.054{col 81}{space 4}-.0000895{col 94}{space 3} .0112077
{txt}{space 26}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0186944{col 53}{space 2} .0291559{col 64}{space 1}   -0.64{col 73}{space 3}0.524{col 81}{space 4}-.0770352{col 94}{space 3} .0396464
{txt}{space 25}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0025995{col 53}{space 2} .0020563{col 64}{space 1}   -1.26{col 73}{space 3}0.211{col 81}{space 4}-.0067141{col 94}{space 3} .0015152
{txt}{space 26}trade_balance {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0146028{col 53}{space 2} .0039928{col 64}{space 1}    3.66{col 73}{space 3}0.001{col 81}{space 4} .0066133{col 94}{space 3} .0225923
{txt}{space 30}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0186502{col 53}{space 2} .0147665{col 64}{space 1}    1.26{col 73}{space 3}0.212{col 81}{space 4}-.0108976{col 94}{space 3}  .048198
{txt}{space 27}presidential {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0959969{col 53}{space 2} .0659066{col 64}{space 1}    1.46{col 73}{space 3}0.151{col 81}{space 4}-.0358819{col 94}{space 3} .2278757
{txt}{space 30}log_gdppc {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1208877{col 53}{space 2} .0617571{col 64}{space 1}   -1.96{col 73}{space 3}0.055{col 81}{space 4}-.2444635{col 94}{space 3}  .002688
{txt}{space 29}gdp_growth {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0070653{col 53}{space 2} .0039283{col 64}{space 1}   -1.80{col 73}{space 3}0.077{col 81}{space 4}-.0149258{col 94}{space 3} .0007953
{txt}{space 32}log_pop {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .3190042{col 53}{space 2} .2312687{col 64}{space 1}    1.38{col 73}{space 3}0.173{col 81}{space 4}-.1437633{col 94}{space 3} .7817717
{txt}{space 33}kaopen {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0152574{col 53}{space 2} .0131736{col 64}{space 1}   -1.16{col 73}{space 3}0.251{col 81}{space 4}-.0416178{col 94}{space 3} .0111029
{txt}{space 27}currency_peg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}  .030246{col 53}{space 2} .0362488{col 64}{space 1}    0.83{col 73}{space 3}0.407{col 81}{space 4}-.0422876{col 94}{space 3} .1027796
{txt}{space 24}currency_binary {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1220533{col 53}{space 2} .0290878{col 64}{space 1}   -4.20{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4}-.1802578{col 94}{space 3}-.0638489
{txt}{space 29}time_trend {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0003895{col 53}{space 2} .0062634{col 64}{space 1}    0.06{col 73}{space 3}0.951{col 81}{space 4}-.0121435{col 94}{space 3} .0129225
{txt}{space 34}_cons {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-4.180361{col 53}{space 2} 4.063218{col 64}{space 1}   -1.03{col 73}{space 3}0.308{col 81}{space 4}-12.31084{col 94}{space 3}  3.95012
{txt}{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                sigma_u {c |} {res} .49546912
                                {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28896436
                                    {txt}rho {c |} {res} .74619171{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 40}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab5
{txt}
{com}. 
. * b) Weighted major cabinet changes (Model 3, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit11##c.crises_reg_yr1_nor polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1477
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6875                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5957                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5447                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   109.16
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6792                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                        log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 44}{c |}      Coef.{col 56}   Std. Err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% Con{col 97}f. Interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 20}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .8072332{col 56}{space 2}  .039268{col 67}{space 1}   20.56{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} .7286582{col 97}{space 3} .8858082
{txt}{space 23}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .041243{col 56}{space 2} .0378158{col 67}{space 1}    1.09{col 76}{space 3}0.280{col 84}{space 4}-.0344262{col 97}{space 3} .1169123
{txt}{space 24}crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.010428{col 56}{space 2}  .011919{col 67}{space 1}   -0.87{col 76}{space 3}0.385{col 84}{space 4}-.0342778{col 97}{space 3} .0134219
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit11#c.crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0067942{col 56}{space 2} .0095705{col 67}{space 1}    0.71{col 76}{space 3}0.481{col 84}{space 4}-.0123564{col 97}{space 3} .0259449
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 35}polity2 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0056104{col 56}{space 2} .0029818{col 67}{space 1}    1.88{col 76}{space 3}0.065{col 84}{space 4}-.0003561{col 97}{space 3} .0115769
{txt}{space 29}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0162843{col 56}{space 2} .0293077{col 67}{space 1}   -0.56{col 76}{space 3}0.581{col 84}{space 4}-.0749288{col 97}{space 3} .0423602
{txt}{space 28}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0026517{col 56}{space 2} .0020174{col 67}{space 1}   -1.31{col 76}{space 3}0.194{col 84}{space 4}-.0066884{col 97}{space 3} .0013851
{txt}{space 29}trade_balance {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0145274{col 56}{space 2} .0039662{col 67}{space 1}    3.66{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4}  .006591{col 97}{space 3} .0224638
{txt}{space 33}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0175026{col 56}{space 2} .0145063{col 67}{space 1}    1.21{col 76}{space 3}0.232{col 84}{space 4}-.0115244{col 97}{space 3} .0465296
{txt}{space 30}presidential {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0995035{col 56}{space 2} .0659557{col 67}{space 1}    1.51{col 76}{space 3}0.137{col 84}{space 4}-.0324735{col 97}{space 3} .2314805
{txt}{space 33}log_gdppc {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1110978{col 56}{space 2} .0626667{col 67}{space 1}   -1.77{col 76}{space 3}0.081{col 84}{space 4}-.2364936{col 97}{space 3}  .014298
{txt}{space 32}gdp_growth {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0074039{col 56}{space 2} .0039295{col 67}{space 1}   -1.88{col 76}{space 3}0.064{col 84}{space 4}-.0152668{col 97}{space 3}  .000459
{txt}{space 35}log_pop {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3690709{col 56}{space 2} .2334355{col 67}{space 1}    1.58{col 76}{space 3}0.119{col 84}{space 4}-.0980324{col 97}{space 3} .8361742
{txt}{space 36}kaopen {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0135313{col 56}{space 2} .0129164{col 67}{space 1}   -1.05{col 76}{space 3}0.299{col 84}{space 4} -.039377{col 97}{space 3} .0123144
{txt}{space 30}currency_peg {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0282392{col 56}{space 2}  .035478{col 67}{space 1}    0.80{col 76}{space 3}0.429{col 84}{space 4} -.042752{col 97}{space 3} .0992305
{txt}{space 27}currency_binary {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1264878{col 56}{space 2} .0286282{col 67}{space 1}   -4.42{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-.1837726{col 97}{space 3}-.0692029
{txt}{space 32}time_trend {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0007668{col 56}{space 2} .0062978{col 67}{space 1}   -0.12{col 76}{space 3}0.904{col 84}{space 4}-.0133687{col 97}{space 3}  .011835
{txt}{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.063971{col 56}{space 2} 4.101286{col 67}{space 1}   -1.23{col 76}{space 3}0.222{col 84}{space 4}-13.27062{col 97}{space 3} 3.142683
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .55592293
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28893702
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .78731929{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab6
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit11) at(crises_reg_yr1_nor = (0(1)9)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1477
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit11 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .041243{col 33}{space 2} .0378158{col 44}{space 1}    1.09{col 53}{space 3}0.275{col 61}{space 4}-.0328746{col 74}{space 3} .1153606
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0480373{col 33}{space 2} .0306085{col 44}{space 1}    1.57{col 53}{space 3}0.117{col 61}{space 4}-.0119543{col 74}{space 3} .1080289
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0548315{col 33}{space 2} .0250384{col 44}{space 1}    2.19{col 53}{space 3}0.029{col 61}{space 4} .0057572{col 74}{space 3} .1039058
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0616258{col 33}{space 2}  .022364{col 44}{space 1}    2.76{col 53}{space 3}0.006{col 61}{space 4} .0177931{col 74}{space 3} .1054584
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}   .06842{col 33}{space 2} .0235917{col 44}{space 1}    2.90{col 53}{space 3}0.004{col 61}{space 4} .0221811{col 74}{space 3} .1146589
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0752143{col 33}{space 2} .0282166{col 44}{space 1}    2.67{col 53}{space 3}0.008{col 61}{space 4} .0199107{col 74}{space 3} .1305179
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0820085{col 33}{space 2} .0349139{col 44}{space 1}    2.35{col 53}{space 3}0.019{col 61}{space 4} .0135785{col 74}{space 3} .1504385
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0888028{col 33}{space 2} .0427197{col 44}{space 1}    2.08{col 53}{space 3}0.038{col 61}{space 4} .0050737{col 74}{space 3} .1725318
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .095597{col 33}{space 2} .0511288{col 44}{space 1}    1.87{col 53}{space 3}0.062{col 61}{space 4}-.0046136{col 74}{space 3} .1958076
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1023912{col 33}{space 2} .0598876{col 44}{space 1}    1.71{col 53}{space 3}0.087{col 61}{space 4}-.0149864{col 74}{space 3} .2197689
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h2_polit11.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of left panel of figure 2 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: crises_reg_yr1_nor{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * c) Unweighted change in effective executive
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit12_binary##c.crises_reg_yr1_nor polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1479
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6888                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6390                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5865                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   101.27
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6382                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 105:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 40}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 41}{c |}{col 53}    Robust
{col 1}                     log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 41}{c |}      Coef.{col 53}   Std. Err.{col 65}      t{col 73}   P>|t|{col 81}     [95% Con{col 94}f. Interval]
{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 17}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .8101115{col 53}{space 2} .0392061{col 64}{space 1}   20.66{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4} .7316602{col 94}{space 3} .8885628
{txt}{space 19}1.sum_polit12_binary {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0363941{col 53}{space 2} .0422486{col 64}{space 1}    0.86{col 73}{space 3}0.392{col 81}{space 4}-.0481452{col 94}{space 3} .1209334
{txt}{space 21}crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0104712{col 53}{space 2} .0113373{col 64}{space 1}   -0.92{col 73}{space 3}0.359{col 81}{space 4}-.0331572{col 94}{space 3} .0122147
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
sum_polit12_binary#c.crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}
{space 37}1  {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0087986{col 53}{space 2} .0108563{col 64}{space 1}    0.81{col 73}{space 3}0.421{col 81}{space 4}-.0129247{col 94}{space 3}  .030522
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
{space 32}polity2 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0060037{col 53}{space 2} .0027766{col 64}{space 1}    2.16{col 73}{space 3}0.035{col 81}{space 4} .0004477{col 94}{space 3} .0115596
{txt}{space 26}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0273585{col 53}{space 2} .0322888{col 64}{space 1}   -0.85{col 73}{space 3}0.400{col 81}{space 4}-.0919683{col 94}{space 3} .0372513
{txt}{space 25}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0024443{col 53}{space 2} .0019876{col 64}{space 1}   -1.23{col 73}{space 3}0.224{col 81}{space 4}-.0064215{col 94}{space 3} .0015329
{txt}{space 26}trade_balance {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0148898{col 53}{space 2} .0039449{col 64}{space 1}    3.77{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4} .0069961{col 94}{space 3} .0227835
{txt}{space 30}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}  .019567{col 53}{space 2} .0145371{col 64}{space 1}    1.35{col 73}{space 3}0.183{col 81}{space 4}-.0095218{col 94}{space 3} .0486558
{txt}{space 27}presidential {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .1058919{col 53}{space 2} .0654147{col 64}{space 1}    1.62{col 73}{space 3}0.111{col 81}{space 4}-.0250026{col 94}{space 3} .2367865
{txt}{space 30}log_gdppc {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1180496{col 53}{space 2} .0623333{col 64}{space 1}   -1.89{col 73}{space 3}0.063{col 81}{space 4}-.2427783{col 94}{space 3}  .006679
{txt}{space 29}gdp_growth {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} -.007263{col 53}{space 2} .0039551{col 64}{space 1}   -1.84{col 73}{space 3}0.071{col 81}{space 4}-.0151772{col 94}{space 3} .0006512
{txt}{space 32}log_pop {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .3218999{col 53}{space 2} .2273734{col 64}{space 1}    1.42{col 73}{space 3}0.162{col 81}{space 4}-.1330732{col 94}{space 3} .7768731
{txt}{space 33}kaopen {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0152043{col 53}{space 2} .0127452{col 64}{space 1}   -1.19{col 73}{space 3}0.238{col 81}{space 4}-.0407074{col 94}{space 3} .0102988
{txt}{space 27}currency_peg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0288351{col 53}{space 2} .0351921{col 64}{space 1}    0.82{col 73}{space 3}0.416{col 81}{space 4}-.0415841{col 94}{space 3} .0992543
{txt}{space 24}currency_binary {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1235435{col 53}{space 2} .0291182{col 64}{space 1}   -4.24{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4}-.1818088{col 94}{space 3}-.0652781
{txt}{space 29}time_trend {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0002547{col 53}{space 2} .0062027{col 64}{space 1}    0.04{col 73}{space 3}0.967{col 81}{space 4} -.012157{col 94}{space 3} .0126664
{txt}{space 34}_cons {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-4.253604{col 53}{space 2} 4.001639{col 64}{space 1}   -1.06{col 73}{space 3}0.292{col 81}{space 4}-12.26087{col 94}{space 3} 3.753657
{txt}{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                sigma_u {c |} {res} .49366201
                                {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28895939
                                    {txt}rho {c |} {res} .74481173{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 40}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. 
. est store tab7
{txt}
{com}. 
. * d) Weighted changes in effective executive (Model 4, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit12##c.crises_reg_yr1_nor polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1477
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6876                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6088                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5562                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   106.99
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6682                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                        log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 44}{c |}      Coef.{col 56}   Std. Err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% Con{col 97}f. Interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 20}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .806511{col 56}{space 2} .0398765{col 67}{space 1}   20.23{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} .7267184{col 97}{space 3} .8863036
{txt}{space 23}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0639576{col 56}{space 2} .0439933{col 67}{space 1}    1.45{col 76}{space 3}0.151{col 84}{space 4}-.0240728{col 97}{space 3} .1519879
{txt}{space 24}crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0087234{col 56}{space 2}  .010762{col 67}{space 1}   -0.81{col 76}{space 3}0.421{col 84}{space 4}-.0302581{col 97}{space 3} .0128112
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit12#c.crises_reg_yr1_nor {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .002959{col 56}{space 2} .0102797{col 67}{space 1}    0.29{col 76}{space 3}0.774{col 84}{space 4}-.0176106{col 97}{space 3} .0235286
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 35}polity2 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0055294{col 56}{space 2} .0028481{col 67}{space 1}    1.94{col 76}{space 3}0.057{col 84}{space 4}-.0001697{col 97}{space 3} .0112285
{txt}{space 29}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0218781{col 56}{space 2} .0317574{col 67}{space 1}   -0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.494{col 84}{space 4}-.0854245{col 97}{space 3} .0416683
{txt}{space 28}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0024443{col 56}{space 2} .0020183{col 67}{space 1}   -1.21{col 76}{space 3}0.231{col 84}{space 4}-.0064829{col 97}{space 3} .0015944
{txt}{space 29}trade_balance {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0146099{col 56}{space 2}  .003959{col 67}{space 1}    3.69{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}  .006688{col 97}{space 3} .0225319
{txt}{space 33}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0171416{col 56}{space 2} .0144373{col 67}{space 1}    1.19{col 76}{space 3}0.240{col 84}{space 4}-.0117473{col 97}{space 3} .0460305
{txt}{space 30}presidential {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1123207{col 56}{space 2} .0647636{col 67}{space 1}    1.73{col 76}{space 3}0.088{col 84}{space 4}-.0172709{col 97}{space 3} .2419124
{txt}{space 33}log_gdppc {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.110757{col 56}{space 2} .0632243{col 67}{space 1}   -1.75{col 76}{space 3}0.085{col 84}{space 4}-.2372685{col 97}{space 3} .0157545
{txt}{space 32}gdp_growth {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0074032{col 56}{space 2} .0039318{col 67}{space 1}   -1.88{col 76}{space 3}0.065{col 84}{space 4}-.0152707{col 97}{space 3} .0004643
{txt}{space 35}log_pop {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3588768{col 56}{space 2} .2310277{col 67}{space 1}    1.55{col 76}{space 3}0.126{col 84}{space 4}-.1034085{col 97}{space 3} .8211621
{txt}{space 36}kaopen {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0140469{col 56}{space 2} .0129209{col 67}{space 1}   -1.09{col 76}{space 3}0.281{col 84}{space 4}-.0399016{col 97}{space 3} .0118079
{txt}{space 30}currency_peg {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0320142{col 56}{space 2} .0351413{col 67}{space 1}    0.91{col 76}{space 3}0.366{col 84}{space 4}-.0383034{col 97}{space 3} .1023318
{txt}{space 27}currency_binary {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1273282{col 56}{space 2} .0288999{col 67}{space 1}   -4.41{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-.1851567{col 97}{space 3}-.0694996
{txt}{space 32}time_trend {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0006584{col 56}{space 2} .0063035{col 67}{space 1}   -0.10{col 76}{space 3}0.917{col 84}{space 4}-.0132717{col 97}{space 3} .0119549
{txt}{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.902466{col 56}{space 2} 4.065574{col 67}{space 1}   -1.21{col 76}{space 3}0.233{col 84}{space 4}-13.03766{col 97}{space 3} 3.232728
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .53753437
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res}  .2889037
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .77587692{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab8
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit12) at(crises_reg_yr1_nor = (0(1)9)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1477
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}7}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:crises_reg~r}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}9}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit12 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0639576{col 33}{space 2} .0439933{col 44}{space 1}    1.45{col 53}{space 3}0.146{col 61}{space 4}-.0222677{col 74}{space 3} .1501828
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0669165{col 33}{space 2} .0364083{col 44}{space 1}    1.84{col 53}{space 3}0.066{col 61}{space 4}-.0044425{col 74}{space 3} .1382755
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0698755{col 33}{space 2} .0304477{col 44}{space 1}    2.29{col 53}{space 3}0.022{col 61}{space 4} .0101991{col 74}{space 3} .1295519
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0728345{col 33}{space 2} .0272012{col 44}{space 1}    2.68{col 53}{space 3}0.007{col 61}{space 4} .0195211{col 74}{space 3} .1261478
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0757934{col 33}{space 2} .0276422{col 44}{space 1}    2.74{col 53}{space 3}0.006{col 61}{space 4} .0216158{col 74}{space 3} .1299711
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0787524{col 33}{space 2} .0316167{col 44}{space 1}    2.49{col 53}{space 3}0.013{col 61}{space 4} .0167847{col 74}{space 3} .1407201
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0817114{col 33}{space 2} .0380328{col 44}{space 1}    2.15{col 53}{space 3}0.032{col 61}{space 4} .0071685{col 74}{space 3} .1562542
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0846703{col 33}{space 2} .0458771{col 44}{space 1}    1.85{col 53}{space 3}0.065{col 61}{space 4}-.0052471{col 74}{space 3} .1745877
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0876293{col 33}{space 2} .0545368{col 44}{space 1}    1.61{col 53}{space 3}0.108{col 61}{space 4}-.0192609{col 74}{space 3} .1945195
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0905883{col 33}{space 2} .0636802{col 44}{space 1}    1.42{col 53}{space 3}0.155{col 61}{space 4}-.0342226{col 74}{space 3} .2153992
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h2_polit12.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of right panel of figure 2 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: crises_reg_yr1_nor{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * Appendix Table 4
. *esttab tab5 tab6 tab7 tab8 using estim_cri_on_nb_int.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f)  title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports - Crises in Neighbourhood when Own Occurs") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. 
. 
. * H3: econ severity
. 
. * a) Unweighted major cabinet changes
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit11_binary##c.gdp_ch1_polit11 polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1429
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       59

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6827                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.4991                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.2
{txt}       overall = {res}0.4678                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}58{txt})           = {res}    87.67
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.7544                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 102:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:59} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 37}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 38}{c |}{col 50}    Robust
{col 1}                  log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 38}{c |}      Coef.{col 50}   Std. Err.{col 62}      t{col 70}   P>|t|{col 78}     [95% Con{col 91}f. Interval]
{hline 37}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}  .794888{col 50}{space 2} .0409817{col 61}{space 1}   19.40{col 70}{space 3}0.000{col 78}{space 4} .7128543{col 91}{space 3} .8769218
{txt}{space 16}1.sum_polit11_binary {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0423415{col 50}{space 2} .0290633{col 61}{space 1}    1.46{col 70}{space 3}0.151{col 78}{space 4}-.0158351{col 91}{space 3}  .100518
{txt}{space 21}gdp_ch1_polit11 {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.1212658{col 50}{space 2} .1521627{col 61}{space 1}   -0.80{col 70}{space 3}0.429{col 78}{space 4}-.4258526{col 91}{space 3} .1833209
{txt}{space 36} {c |}
sum_polit11_binary#c.gdp_ch1_polit11 {c |}
{space 34}1  {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .2367407{col 50}{space 2} .1554111{col 61}{space 1}    1.52{col 70}{space 3}0.133{col 78}{space 4}-.0743484{col 91}{space 3} .5478297
{txt}{space 36} {c |}
{space 29}polity2 {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0039315{col 50}{space 2} .0027413{col 61}{space 1}    1.43{col 70}{space 3}0.157{col 78}{space 4}-.0015557{col 91}{space 3} .0094188
{txt}{space 23}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0017443{col 50}{space 2} .0271805{col 61}{space 1}   -0.06{col 70}{space 3}0.949{col 78}{space 4}-.0561521{col 91}{space 3} .0526634
{txt}{space 22}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0030995{col 50}{space 2} .0021604{col 61}{space 1}   -1.43{col 70}{space 3}0.157{col 78}{space 4} -.007424{col 91}{space 3} .0012251
{txt}{space 23}trade_balance {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0142556{col 50}{space 2} .0037384{col 61}{space 1}    3.81{col 70}{space 3}0.000{col 78}{space 4} .0067723{col 91}{space 3} .0217388
{txt}{space 27}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}  .001808{col 50}{space 2}  .013979{col 61}{space 1}    0.13{col 70}{space 3}0.898{col 78}{space 4} -.026174{col 91}{space 3} .0297899
{txt}{space 24}presidential {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0657285{col 50}{space 2} .0553179{col 61}{space 1}    1.19{col 70}{space 3}0.240{col 78}{space 4}-.0450023{col 91}{space 3} .1764593
{txt}{space 27}log_gdppc {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.1304421{col 50}{space 2} .0663236{col 61}{space 1}   -1.97{col 70}{space 3}0.054{col 78}{space 4}-.2632032{col 91}{space 3} .0023189
{txt}{space 26}gdp_growth {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0067674{col 50}{space 2} .0041094{col 61}{space 1}   -1.65{col 70}{space 3}0.105{col 78}{space 4}-.0149932{col 91}{space 3} .0014584
{txt}{space 29}log_pop {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .4602147{col 50}{space 2} .2543324{col 61}{space 1}    1.81{col 70}{space 3}0.076{col 78}{space 4}-.0488868{col 91}{space 3} .9693163
{txt}{space 30}kaopen {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0172251{col 50}{space 2} .0126136{col 61}{space 1}   -1.37{col 70}{space 3}0.177{col 78}{space 4}-.0424739{col 91}{space 3} .0080238
{txt}{space 24}currency_peg {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0507621{col 50}{space 2} .0366221{col 61}{space 1}    1.39{col 70}{space 3}0.171{col 78}{space 4} -.022545{col 91}{space 3} .1240691
{txt}{space 21}currency_binary {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.1183699{col 50}{space 2} .0301774{col 61}{space 1}   -3.92{col 70}{space 3}0.000{col 78}{space 4}-.1787766{col 91}{space 3}-.0579631
{txt}{space 26}time_trend {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0010618{col 50}{space 2}  .006641{col 61}{space 1}   -0.16{col 70}{space 3}0.874{col 78}{space 4}-.0143552{col 91}{space 3} .0122315
{txt}{space 31}_cons {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-6.418612{col 50}{space 2} 4.442032{col 61}{space 1}   -1.44{col 70}{space 3}0.154{col 78}{space 4}-15.31031{col 91}{space 3} 2.473082
{txt}{hline 37}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                             sigma_u {c |} {res}  .6912183
                             {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28691686
                                 {txt}rho {c |} {res} .85302501{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 37}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab9
{txt}
{com}. 
. * b) Weighted major cabinet changes (Model 5, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit11##c.gdp_ch1_polit11 polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1429
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       59

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6840                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.4983                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.2
{txt}       overall = {res}0.4675                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}58{txt})           = {res}    87.80
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.7547                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 105:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:59} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 40}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 41}{c |}{col 53}    Robust
{col 1}                     log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 41}{c |}      Coef.{col 53}   Std. Err.{col 65}      t{col 73}   P>|t|{col 81}     [95% Con{col 94}f. Interval]
{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 17}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .7937604{col 53}{space 2} .0409982{col 64}{space 1}   19.36{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4} .7116935{col 94}{space 3} .8758274
{txt}{space 20}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}  .053445{col 53}{space 2} .0258033{col 64}{space 1}    2.07{col 73}{space 3}0.043{col 81}{space 4}  .001794{col 94}{space 3}  .105096
{txt}{space 24}gdp_ch1_polit11 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0837994{col 53}{space 2} .0915854{col 64}{space 1}   -0.91{col 73}{space 3}0.364{col 81}{space 4}-.2671275{col 94}{space 3} .0995287
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit11#c.gdp_ch1_polit11 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .3431909{col 53}{space 2}  .119846{col 64}{space 1}    2.86{col 73}{space 3}0.006{col 81}{space 4}  .103293{col 94}{space 3} .5830888
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
{space 32}polity2 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0037028{col 53}{space 2} .0030034{col 64}{space 1}    1.23{col 73}{space 3}0.223{col 81}{space 4}-.0023091{col 94}{space 3} .0097147
{txt}{space 26}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0006497{col 53}{space 2} .0267448{col 64}{space 1}   -0.02{col 73}{space 3}0.981{col 81}{space 4}-.0541853{col 94}{space 3} .0528859
{txt}{space 25}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0032423{col 53}{space 2} .0021073{col 64}{space 1}   -1.54{col 73}{space 3}0.129{col 81}{space 4}-.0074605{col 94}{space 3} .0009759
{txt}{space 26}trade_balance {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0145586{col 53}{space 2} .0036696{col 64}{space 1}    3.97{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4} .0072131{col 94}{space 3} .0219041
{txt}{space 30}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0001876{col 53}{space 2} .0139008{col 64}{space 1}    0.01{col 73}{space 3}0.989{col 81}{space 4}-.0276379{col 94}{space 3} .0280131
{txt}{space 27}presidential {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0868132{col 53}{space 2} .0560879{col 64}{space 1}    1.55{col 73}{space 3}0.127{col 81}{space 4} -.025459{col 94}{space 3} .1990854
{txt}{space 30}log_gdppc {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1297529{col 53}{space 2} .0650985{col 64}{space 1}   -1.99{col 73}{space 3}0.051{col 81}{space 4}-.2600617{col 94}{space 3} .0005558
{txt}{space 29}gdp_growth {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0068045{col 53}{space 2} .0040955{col 64}{space 1}   -1.66{col 73}{space 3}0.102{col 81}{space 4}-.0150026{col 94}{space 3} .0013935
{txt}{space 32}log_pop {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .4611523{col 53}{space 2} .2490505{col 64}{space 1}    1.85{col 73}{space 3}0.069{col 81}{space 4}-.0373763{col 94}{space 3}  .959681
{txt}{space 33}kaopen {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0179019{col 53}{space 2} .0126102{col 64}{space 1}   -1.42{col 73}{space 3}0.161{col 81}{space 4} -.043144{col 94}{space 3} .0073402
{txt}{space 27}currency_peg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}  .051601{col 53}{space 2} .0363446{col 64}{space 1}    1.42{col 73}{space 3}0.161{col 81}{space 4}-.0211506{col 94}{space 3} .1243526
{txt}{space 24}currency_binary {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1271491{col 53}{space 2} .0298526{col 64}{space 1}   -4.26{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4}-.1869056{col 94}{space 3}-.0673925
{txt}{space 29}time_trend {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0006761{col 53}{space 2} .0064427{col 64}{space 1}   -0.10{col 73}{space 3}0.917{col 81}{space 4}-.0135726{col 94}{space 3} .0122204
{txt}{space 34}_cons {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-6.449857{col 53}{space 2} 4.349675{col 64}{space 1}   -1.48{col 73}{space 3}0.144{col 81}{space 4}-15.15668{col 94}{space 3} 2.256964
{txt}{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                sigma_u {c |} {res} .69261109
                                {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28631345
                                    {txt}rho {c |} {res} .85405464{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 40}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab10
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit11) at(gdp_ch1_polit11 = (-0.75(.1).95)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1429
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.65}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.55}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.45}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.35}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.35}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.45}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.55}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.65}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.85}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.95}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit11 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.2039482{col 33}{space 2} .0963393{col 44}{space 1}   -2.12{col 53}{space 3}0.034{col 61}{space 4}-.3927696{col 74}{space 3}-.0151267
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1696291{col 33}{space 2} .0848465{col 44}{space 1}   -2.00{col 53}{space 3}0.046{col 61}{space 4}-.3359251{col 74}{space 3} -.003333
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  -.13531{col 33}{space 2}  .073511{col 44}{space 1}   -1.84{col 53}{space 3}0.066{col 61}{space 4}-.2793889{col 74}{space 3} .0087689
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1009909{col 33}{space 2} .0624184{col 44}{space 1}   -1.62{col 53}{space 3}0.106{col 61}{space 4}-.2233288{col 74}{space 3}  .021347
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0666718{col 33}{space 2} .0517254{col 44}{space 1}   -1.29{col 53}{space 3}0.197{col 61}{space 4}-.1680518{col 74}{space 3} .0347082
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0323527{col 33}{space 2} .0417402{col 44}{space 1}   -0.78{col 53}{space 3}0.438{col 61}{space 4}-.1141619{col 74}{space 3} .0494565
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0019664{col 33}{space 2} .0331093{col 44}{space 1}    0.06{col 53}{space 3}0.953{col 61}{space 4}-.0629266{col 74}{space 3} .0668594
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0362855{col 33}{space 2} .0271563{col 44}{space 1}    1.34{col 53}{space 3}0.181{col 61}{space 4}  -.01694{col 74}{space 3} .0895109
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0706046{col 33}{space 2} .0258064{col 44}{space 1}    2.74{col 53}{space 3}0.006{col 61}{space 4} .0200249{col 74}{space 3} .1211843
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1049237{col 33}{space 2} .0296941{col 44}{space 1}    3.53{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .0467243{col 74}{space 3}  .163123
{txt}{space 16}11  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1392427{col 33}{space 2} .0372125{col 44}{space 1}    3.74{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .0663077{col 74}{space 3} .2121778
{txt}{space 16}12  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1735618{col 33}{space 2} .0466375{col 44}{space 1}    3.72{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}  .082154{col 74}{space 3} .2649697
{txt}{space 16}13  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2078809{col 33}{space 2} .0570316{col 44}{space 1}    3.65{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}  .096101{col 74}{space 3} .3196609
{txt}{space 16}14  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}    .2422{col 33}{space 2} .0679516{col 44}{space 1}    3.56{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .1090173{col 74}{space 3} .3753827
{txt}{space 16}15  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2765191{col 33}{space 2} .0791801{col 44}{space 1}    3.49{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .1213289{col 74}{space 3} .4317093
{txt}{space 16}16  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .3108382{col 33}{space 2} .0906026{col 44}{space 1}    3.43{col 53}{space 3}0.001{col 61}{space 4} .1332604{col 74}{space 3}  .488416
{txt}{space 16}17  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .3451573{col 33}{space 2} .1021539{col 44}{space 1}    3.38{col 53}{space 3}0.001{col 61}{space 4} .1449393{col 74}{space 3} .5453753
{txt}{space 16}18  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .3794764{col 33}{space 2} .1137949{col 44}{space 1}    3.33{col 53}{space 3}0.001{col 61}{space 4} .1564424{col 74}{space 3} .6025103
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h3_polit11.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of left panel of figure 3 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: gdp_ch1_polit11{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. * c) Unweighted change in effective executive
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit12_binary##c.gdp_ch1_polit12 polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1453
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6911                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5442                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.2
{txt}       overall = {res}0.4955                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   100.95
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.7437                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 102:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 37}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 38}{c |}{col 50}    Robust
{col 1}                  log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 38}{c |}      Coef.{col 50}   Std. Err.{col 62}      t{col 70}   P>|t|{col 78}     [95% Con{col 91}f. Interval]
{hline 37}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .8087786{col 50}{space 2} .0403616{col 61}{space 1}   20.04{col 70}{space 3}0.000{col 78}{space 4} .7280152{col 91}{space 3} .8895421
{txt}{space 16}1.sum_polit12_binary {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0385405{col 50}{space 2} .0260846{col 61}{space 1}    1.48{col 70}{space 3}0.145{col 78}{space 4}-.0136547{col 91}{space 3} .0907357
{txt}{space 21}gdp_ch1_polit12 {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0242997{col 50}{space 2} .1040141{col 61}{space 1}   -0.23{col 70}{space 3}0.816{col 78}{space 4}-.2324316{col 91}{space 3} .1838321
{txt}{space 36} {c |}
sum_polit12_binary#c.gdp_ch1_polit12 {c |}
{space 34}1  {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}  .055433{col 50}{space 2} .1162273{col 61}{space 1}    0.48{col 70}{space 3}0.635{col 78}{space 4}-.1771373{col 91}{space 3} .2880032
{txt}{space 36} {c |}
{space 29}polity2 {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0048523{col 50}{space 2} .0029507{col 61}{space 1}    1.64{col 70}{space 3}0.105{col 78}{space 4} -.001052{col 91}{space 3} .0107567
{txt}{space 23}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0202433{col 50}{space 2} .0330409{col 61}{space 1}   -0.61{col 70}{space 3}0.542{col 78}{space 4} -.086358{col 91}{space 3} .0458714
{txt}{space 22}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} -.002802{col 50}{space 2} .0019428{col 61}{space 1}   -1.44{col 70}{space 3}0.155{col 78}{space 4}-.0066895{col 91}{space 3} .0010854
{txt}{space 23}trade_balance {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0146775{col 50}{space 2} .0038068{col 61}{space 1}    3.86{col 70}{space 3}0.000{col 78}{space 4}   .00706{col 91}{space 3}  .022295
{txt}{space 27}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .0109466{col 50}{space 2}  .014225{col 61}{space 1}    0.77{col 70}{space 3}0.445{col 78}{space 4}-.0175176{col 91}{space 3} .0394108
{txt}{space 24}presidential {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .1000898{col 50}{space 2} .0650804{col 61}{space 1}    1.54{col 70}{space 3}0.129{col 78}{space 4}-.0301357{col 91}{space 3} .2303153
{txt}{space 27}log_gdppc {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.1141911{col 50}{space 2} .0660812{col 61}{space 1}   -1.73{col 70}{space 3}0.089{col 78}{space 4}-.2464192{col 91}{space 3} .0180371
{txt}{space 26}gdp_growth {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0085382{col 50}{space 2} .0041057{col 61}{space 1}   -2.08{col 70}{space 3}0.042{col 78}{space 4}-.0167538{col 91}{space 3}-.0003227
{txt}{space 29}log_pop {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2} .4446153{col 50}{space 2} .2416517{col 61}{space 1}    1.84{col 70}{space 3}0.071{col 78}{space 4}-.0389287{col 91}{space 3} .9281593
{txt}{space 30}kaopen {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0170302{col 50}{space 2} .0123554{col 61}{space 1}   -1.38{col 70}{space 3}0.173{col 78}{space 4}-.0417532{col 91}{space 3} .0076929
{txt}{space 24}currency_peg {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}  .032255{col 50}{space 2} .0363558{col 61}{space 1}    0.89{col 70}{space 3}0.379{col 78}{space 4}-.0404927{col 91}{space 3} .1050028
{txt}{space 21}currency_binary {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.1229071{col 50}{space 2} .0296085{col 61}{space 1}   -4.15{col 70}{space 3}0.000{col 78}{space 4}-.1821535{col 91}{space 3}-.0636607
{txt}{space 26}time_trend {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-.0014034{col 50}{space 2}  .006416{col 61}{space 1}   -0.22{col 70}{space 3}0.828{col 78}{space 4}-.0142419{col 91}{space 3} .0114351
{txt}{space 31}_cons {c |}{col 38}{res}{space 2}-6.291273{col 50}{space 2} 4.241593{col 61}{space 1}   -1.48{col 70}{space 3}0.143{col 78}{space 4}-14.77868{col 91}{space 3} 2.196134
{txt}{hline 37}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                             sigma_u {c |} {res} .65736938
                             {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28750678
                                 {txt}rho {c |} {res} .83943084{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 37}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. 
. est store tab11
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * d) Weighted changes in effective executive (Model 6, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit12##c.gdp_ch1_polit12 polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1453
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6919                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5388                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.2
{txt}       overall = {res}0.4910                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   103.72
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.7453                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 105:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 40}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 41}{c |}{col 53}    Robust
{col 1}                     log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 41}{c |}      Coef.{col 53}   Std. Err.{col 65}      t{col 73}   P>|t|{col 81}     [95% Con{col 94}f. Interval]
{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 17}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .8056411{col 53}{space 2} .0403015{col 64}{space 1}   19.99{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4}  .724998{col 94}{space 3} .8862842
{txt}{space 20}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}  .049859{col 53}{space 2} .0278969{col 64}{space 1}    1.79{col 73}{space 3}0.079{col 81}{space 4}-.0059625{col 94}{space 3} .1056805
{txt}{space 24}gdp_ch1_polit12 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0480041{col 53}{space 2} .0876874{col 64}{space 1}   -0.55{col 73}{space 3}0.586{col 81}{space 4}-.2234662{col 94}{space 3} .1274581
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit12#c.gdp_ch1_polit12 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .2130229{col 53}{space 2} .1555598{col 64}{space 1}    1.37{col 73}{space 3}0.176{col 81}{space 4}-.0982517{col 94}{space 3} .5242974
{txt}{space 39} {c |}
{space 32}polity2 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0046645{col 53}{space 2}   .00303{col 64}{space 1}    1.54{col 73}{space 3}0.129{col 81}{space 4}-.0013986{col 94}{space 3} .0107276
{txt}{space 26}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0191405{col 53}{space 2} .0321378{col 64}{space 1}   -0.60{col 73}{space 3}0.554{col 81}{space 4}-.0834481{col 94}{space 3} .0451671
{txt}{space 25}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} -.002707{col 53}{space 2} .0019754{col 64}{space 1}   -1.37{col 73}{space 3}0.176{col 81}{space 4}-.0066598{col 94}{space 3} .0012457
{txt}{space 26}trade_balance {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0150046{col 53}{space 2} .0037995{col 64}{space 1}    3.95{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4} .0074019{col 94}{space 3} .0226073
{txt}{space 30}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .0091879{col 53}{space 2} .0142343{col 64}{space 1}    0.65{col 73}{space 3}0.521{col 81}{space 4}-.0192949{col 94}{space 3} .0376708
{txt}{space 27}presidential {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .1158271{col 53}{space 2} .0643063{col 64}{space 1}    1.80{col 73}{space 3}0.077{col 81}{space 4}-.0128494{col 94}{space 3} .2445037
{txt}{space 30}log_gdppc {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1126123{col 53}{space 2}  .065758{col 64}{space 1}   -1.71{col 73}{space 3}0.092{col 81}{space 4}-.2441938{col 94}{space 3} .0189693
{txt}{space 29}gdp_growth {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0083466{col 53}{space 2} .0040004{col 64}{space 1}   -2.09{col 73}{space 3}0.041{col 81}{space 4}-.0163513{col 94}{space 3}-.0003419
{txt}{space 32}log_pop {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2} .4513388{col 53}{space 2} .2417181{col 64}{space 1}    1.87{col 73}{space 3}0.067{col 81}{space 4}-.0323381{col 94}{space 3} .9350156
{txt}{space 33}kaopen {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0174365{col 53}{space 2} .0126551{col 64}{space 1}   -1.38{col 73}{space 3}0.173{col 81}{space 4}-.0427593{col 94}{space 3} .0078863
{txt}{space 27}currency_peg {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}  .036853{col 53}{space 2}  .035964{col 64}{space 1}    1.02{col 73}{space 3}0.310{col 81}{space 4}-.0351107{col 94}{space 3} .1088167
{txt}{space 24}currency_binary {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.1267217{col 53}{space 2} .0294762{col 64}{space 1}   -4.30{col 73}{space 3}0.000{col 81}{space 4}-.1857034{col 94}{space 3}  -.06774
{txt}{space 29}time_trend {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-.0015342{col 53}{space 2} .0063868{col 64}{space 1}   -0.24{col 73}{space 3}0.811{col 81}{space 4}-.0143141{col 94}{space 3} .0112458
{txt}{space 34}_cons {c |}{col 41}{res}{space 2}-6.420179{col 53}{space 2} 4.240793{col 64}{space 1}   -1.51{col 73}{space 3}0.135{col 81}{space 4}-14.90599{col 94}{space 3} 2.065629
{txt}{hline 40}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                sigma_u {c |} {res} .66331336
                                {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28713658
                                    {txt}rho {c |} {res} .84218537{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 40}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab12
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *graph export "cri_sev_polit12.pdf", replace
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit12) at(gdp_ch1_polit12 = (-0.75(.1).95)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1453
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.65}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.55}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.45}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.35}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 7}-.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:11._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:12._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.35}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:13._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.45}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:14._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.55}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:15._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.65}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:16._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:17._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.85}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:18._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:gdp_ch1_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}.95}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit12 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1099081{col 33}{space 2} .1209732{col 44}{space 1}   -0.91{col 53}{space 3}0.364{col 61}{space 4}-.3470112{col 74}{space 3}  .127195
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0886058{col 33}{space 2} .1058966{col 44}{space 1}   -0.84{col 53}{space 3}0.403{col 61}{space 4}-.2961593{col 74}{space 3} .1189476
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0673036{col 33}{space 2} .0909815{col 44}{space 1}   -0.74{col 53}{space 3}0.459{col 61}{space 4} -.245624{col 74}{space 3} .1110169
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0460013{col 33}{space 2} .0763227{col 44}{space 1}   -0.60{col 53}{space 3}0.547{col 61}{space 4} -.195591{col 74}{space 3} .1035885
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} -.024699{col 33}{space 2}  .062102{col 44}{space 1}   -0.40{col 53}{space 3}0.691{col 61}{space 4}-.1464167{col 74}{space 3} .0970187
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0033967{col 33}{space 2} .0487046{col 44}{space 1}   -0.07{col 53}{space 3}0.944{col 61}{space 4}-.0988559{col 74}{space 3} .0920625
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0179056{col 33}{space 2}  .037035{col 44}{space 1}    0.48{col 53}{space 3}0.629{col 61}{space 4}-.0546817{col 74}{space 3} .0904929
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0392079{col 33}{space 2} .0292408{col 44}{space 1}    1.34{col 53}{space 3}0.180{col 61}{space 4}-.0181031{col 74}{space 3} .0965189
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0605101{col 33}{space 2} .0286782{col 44}{space 1}    2.11{col 53}{space 3}0.035{col 61}{space 4}  .004302{col 74}{space 3} .1167183
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0818124{col 33}{space 2} .0356907{col 44}{space 1}    2.29{col 53}{space 3}0.022{col 61}{space 4} .0118599{col 74}{space 3} .1517649
{txt}{space 16}11  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1031147{col 33}{space 2}  .047002{col 44}{space 1}    2.19{col 53}{space 3}0.028{col 61}{space 4} .0109924{col 74}{space 3}  .195237
{txt}{space 16}12  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .124417{col 33}{space 2} .0602373{col 44}{space 1}    2.07{col 53}{space 3}0.039{col 61}{space 4}  .006354{col 74}{space 3}   .24248
{txt}{space 16}13  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1457193{col 33}{space 2} .0743764{col 44}{space 1}    1.96{col 53}{space 3}0.050{col 61}{space 4}-.0000558{col 74}{space 3} .2914944
{txt}{space 16}14  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1670216{col 33}{space 2} .0889896{col 44}{space 1}    1.88{col 53}{space 3}0.061{col 61}{space 4}-.0073949{col 74}{space 3}  .341438
{txt}{space 16}15  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1883238{col 33}{space 2}  .103877{col 44}{space 1}    1.81{col 53}{space 3}0.070{col 61}{space 4}-.0152713{col 74}{space 3}  .391919
{txt}{space 16}16  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2096261{col 33}{space 2} .1189356{col 44}{space 1}    1.76{col 53}{space 3}0.078{col 61}{space 4}-.0234834{col 74}{space 3} .4427356
{txt}{space 16}17  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2309284{col 33}{space 2} .1341078{col 44}{space 1}    1.72{col 53}{space 3}0.085{col 61}{space 4}-.0319181{col 74}{space 3} .4937749
{txt}{space 16}18  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2522307{col 33}{space 2}  .149359{col 44}{space 1}    1.69{col 53}{space 3}0.091{col 61}{space 4}-.0405076{col 74}{space 3}  .544969
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h3_polit12.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of right panel of figure 3 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: gdp_ch1_polit12{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Appendix Table 4
. *esttab tab9 tab10 tab11 tab12 using estim_gdp_ch_int.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f)  title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports - Economic Severity of the Previous Currency Crisis") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. * H4: reserve sales
. 
. * a) Unweighted major cabinet changes
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.sum_polit11_binary##c.res_ch2_polit11##c.log_pre_l1_reserves  polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend  if res_ch2_polit11 <= 2.168937 , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1352
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.7225                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6672                                        {txt}avg = {res}     22.5
{txt}       overall = {res}0.6244                                        {txt}max = {res}       32

                                                {txt}F({res}21{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   148.56
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6487                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 126:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 61}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 62}{c |}{col 74}    Robust
{col 1}                                          log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 62}{c |}      Coef.{col 74}   Std. Err.{col 86}      t{col 94}   P>|t|{col 102}     [95% Con{col 115}f. Interval]
{hline 61}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 38}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .8084384{col 74}{space 2} .0317779{col 85}{space 1}   25.44{col 94}{space 3}0.000{col 102}{space 4}  .744851{col 115}{space 3} .8720259
{txt}{space 42}sum_polit11_binary {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0224021{col 74}{space 2} .0658957{col 85}{space 1}    0.34{col 94}{space 3}0.735{col 102}{space 4}-.1094548{col 115}{space 3}  .154259
{txt}{space 45}res_ch2_polit11 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .3041803{col 74}{space 2}  .103265{col 85}{space 1}    2.95{col 94}{space 3}0.005{col 102}{space 4} .0975476{col 115}{space 3}  .510813
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 22}c.sum_polit11_binary#c.res_ch2_polit11 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.2328529{col 74}{space 2} .1150055{col 85}{space 1}   -2.02{col 94}{space 3}0.047{col 102}{space 4}-.4629784{col 115}{space 3}-.0027275
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 41}log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0327863{col 74}{space 2} .0389328{col 85}{space 1}   -0.84{col 94}{space 3}0.403{col 102}{space 4}-.1106905{col 115}{space 3}  .045118
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 18}c.sum_polit11_binary#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0548467{col 74}{space 2} .0482878{col 85}{space 1}    1.14{col 94}{space 3}0.261{col 102}{space 4}-.0417769{col 115}{space 3} .1514703
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 21}c.res_ch2_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.2076942{col 74}{space 2}  .095412{col 85}{space 1}   -2.18{col 94}{space 3}0.034{col 102}{space 4}-.3986131{col 115}{space 3}-.0167753
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
c.sum_polit11_binary#c.res_ch2_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .1657412{col 74}{space 2} .0995667{col 85}{space 1}    1.66{col 94}{space 3}0.101{col 102}{space 4}-.0334914{col 115}{space 3} .3649738
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 53}polity2 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0057545{col 74}{space 2} .0039375{col 85}{space 1}    1.46{col 94}{space 3}0.149{col 102}{space 4}-.0021245{col 115}{space 3} .0136334
{txt}{space 47}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0331441{col 74}{space 2} .0258108{col 85}{space 1}   -1.28{col 94}{space 3}0.204{col 102}{space 4}-.0847913{col 115}{space 3} .0185032
{txt}{space 46}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0032071{col 74}{space 2} .0021919{col 85}{space 1}   -1.46{col 94}{space 3}0.149{col 102}{space 4} -.007593{col 115}{space 3} .0011789
{txt}{space 47}trade_balance {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0155269{col 74}{space 2} .0042971{col 85}{space 1}    3.61{col 94}{space 3}0.001{col 102}{space 4} .0069284{col 115}{space 3} .0241254
{txt}{space 51}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}  .018256{col 74}{space 2} .0143472{col 85}{space 1}    1.27{col 94}{space 3}0.208{col 102}{space 4}-.0104527{col 115}{space 3} .0469648
{txt}{space 48}presidential {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}  .101682{col 74}{space 2} .0643514{col 85}{space 1}    1.58{col 94}{space 3}0.119{col 102}{space 4}-.0270849{col 115}{space 3}  .230449
{txt}{space 51}log_gdppc {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.1585351{col 74}{space 2} .0649317{col 85}{space 1}   -2.44{col 94}{space 3}0.018{col 102}{space 4}-.2884631{col 115}{space 3} -.028607
{txt}{space 50}gdp_growth {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0080601{col 74}{space 2} .0034938{col 85}{space 1}   -2.31{col 94}{space 3}0.025{col 102}{space 4}-.0150512{col 115}{space 3}-.0010691
{txt}{space 53}log_pop {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .2937112{col 74}{space 2} .2608239{col 85}{space 1}    1.13{col 94}{space 3}0.265{col 102}{space 4}-.2281962{col 115}{space 3} .8156186
{txt}{space 54}kaopen {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0079634{col 74}{space 2} .0150522{col 85}{space 1}   -0.53{col 94}{space 3}0.599{col 102}{space 4}-.0380829{col 115}{space 3} .0221561
{txt}{space 48}currency_peg {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0027492{col 74}{space 2} .0409138{col 85}{space 1}    0.07{col 94}{space 3}0.947{col 102}{space 4}-.0791192{col 115}{space 3} .0846176
{txt}{space 45}currency_binary {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.1351549{col 74}{space 2} .0311088{col 85}{space 1}   -4.34{col 94}{space 3}0.000{col 102}{space 4}-.1974034{col 115}{space 3}-.0729063
{txt}{space 50}time_trend {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0031742{col 74}{space 2} .0070652{col 85}{space 1}    0.45{col 94}{space 3}0.655{col 102}{space 4}-.0109633{col 115}{space 3} .0173118
{txt}{space 55}_cons {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-3.538219{col 74}{space 2} 4.475921{col 85}{space 1}   -0.79{col 94}{space 3}0.432{col 102}{space 4}-12.49452{col 115}{space 3} 5.418079
{txt}{hline 61}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                                     sigma_u {c |} {res} .48321449
                                                     {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .27650809
                                                         {txt}rho {c |} {res} .75332798{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 61}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab13
{txt}
{com}. 
. * b) Unweighted change in effective executive
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.sum_polit12_binary##c.res_ch2_polit12##c.log_pre_l1_reserves  polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend  if res_ch2_polit12 <= 2.168937, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1352
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.7209                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6611                                        {txt}avg = {res}     22.5
{txt}       overall = {res}0.6181                                        {txt}max = {res}       32

                                                {txt}F({res}21{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   146.18
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6707                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 126:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 61}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 62}{c |}{col 74}    Robust
{col 1}                                          log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 62}{c |}      Coef.{col 74}   Std. Err.{col 86}      t{col 94}   P>|t|{col 102}     [95% Con{col 115}f. Interval]
{hline 61}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 38}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .8126334{col 74}{space 2} .0338725{col 85}{space 1}   23.99{col 94}{space 3}0.000{col 102}{space 4} .7448547{col 115}{space 3} .8804122
{txt}{space 42}sum_polit12_binary {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0422427{col 74}{space 2} .0515214{col 85}{space 1}   -0.82{col 94}{space 3}0.416{col 102}{space 4}-.1453368{col 115}{space 3} .0608514
{txt}{space 45}res_ch2_polit12 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}  .205786{col 74}{space 2} .0793323{col 85}{space 1}    2.59{col 94}{space 3}0.012{col 102}{space 4} .0470424{col 115}{space 3} .3645297
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 22}c.sum_polit12_binary#c.res_ch2_polit12 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.1156417{col 74}{space 2} .0842721{col 85}{space 1}   -1.37{col 94}{space 3}0.175{col 102}{space 4}-.2842698{col 115}{space 3} .0529864
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 41}log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0169049{col 74}{space 2} .0288282{col 85}{space 1}   -0.59{col 94}{space 3}0.560{col 102}{space 4}  -.07459{col 115}{space 3} .0407801
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 18}c.sum_polit12_binary#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}  .075021{col 74}{space 2} .0339669{col 85}{space 1}    2.21{col 94}{space 3}0.031{col 102}{space 4} .0070533{col 115}{space 3} .1429887
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 21}c.res_ch2_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0836933{col 74}{space 2} .0417825{col 85}{space 1}   -2.00{col 94}{space 3}0.050{col 102}{space 4}-.1672999{col 115}{space 3}-.0000866
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
c.sum_polit12_binary#c.res_ch2_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0121231{col 74}{space 2} .0535459{col 85}{space 1}    0.23{col 94}{space 3}0.822{col 102}{space 4} -.095022{col 115}{space 3} .1192682
{txt}{space 60} {c |}
{space 53}polity2 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0063283{col 74}{space 2}  .004009{col 85}{space 1}    1.58{col 94}{space 3}0.120{col 102}{space 4}-.0016937{col 115}{space 3} .0143503
{txt}{space 47}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0279151{col 74}{space 2} .0264075{col 85}{space 1}   -1.06{col 94}{space 3}0.295{col 102}{space 4}-.0807564{col 115}{space 3} .0249262
{txt}{space 46}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0031023{col 74}{space 2} .0020757{col 85}{space 1}   -1.49{col 94}{space 3}0.140{col 102}{space 4}-.0072558{col 115}{space 3} .0010511
{txt}{space 47}trade_balance {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}  .016117{col 74}{space 2} .0041131{col 85}{space 1}    3.92{col 94}{space 3}0.000{col 102}{space 4} .0078867{col 115}{space 3} .0243473
{txt}{space 51}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0180985{col 74}{space 2} .0148876{col 85}{space 1}    1.22{col 94}{space 3}0.229{col 102}{space 4}-.0116914{col 115}{space 3} .0478885
{txt}{space 48}presidential {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .1016128{col 74}{space 2} .0661938{col 85}{space 1}    1.54{col 94}{space 3}0.130{col 102}{space 4}-.0308407{col 115}{space 3} .2340662
{txt}{space 51}log_gdppc {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.1571134{col 74}{space 2} .0691915{col 85}{space 1}   -2.27{col 94}{space 3}0.027{col 102}{space 4}-.2955653{col 115}{space 3}-.0186616
{txt}{space 50}gdp_growth {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0089225{col 74}{space 2} .0035356{col 85}{space 1}   -2.52{col 94}{space 3}0.014{col 102}{space 4}-.0159973{col 115}{space 3}-.0018477
{txt}{space 53}log_pop {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .3073325{col 74}{space 2} .2508318{col 85}{space 1}    1.23{col 94}{space 3}0.225{col 102}{space 4}-.1945808{col 115}{space 3} .8092459
{txt}{space 54}kaopen {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.0085438{col 74}{space 2} .0145984{col 85}{space 1}   -0.59{col 94}{space 3}0.561{col 102}{space 4}-.0377552{col 115}{space 3} .0206676
{txt}{space 48}currency_peg {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0024848{col 74}{space 2} .0413264{col 85}{space 1}    0.06{col 94}{space 3}0.952{col 102}{space 4}-.0802092{col 115}{space 3} .0851787
{txt}{space 45}currency_binary {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-.1425348{col 74}{space 2} .0317721{col 85}{space 1}   -4.49{col 94}{space 3}0.000{col 102}{space 4}-.2061107{col 115}{space 3}-.0789588
{txt}{space 50}time_trend {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2} .0021637{col 74}{space 2} .0070988{col 85}{space 1}    0.30{col 94}{space 3}0.762{col 102}{space 4}-.0120411{col 115}{space 3} .0163684
{txt}{space 55}_cons {c |}{col 62}{res}{space 2}-3.738465{col 74}{space 2}  4.35673{col 85}{space 1}   -0.86{col 94}{space 3}0.394{col 102}{space 4}-12.45626{col 115}{space 3}  4.97933
{txt}{hline 61}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                                     sigma_u {c |} {res} .50080879
                                                     {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .27728927
                                                         {txt}rho {c |} {res} .76536581{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 61}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab14
{txt}
{com}. 
. * c) Weighted major cabinet changes (Model 7, Table 1)
. * Due to the posting of the marginal effects generated by margins
. * the models are run twice, once for each margins call
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit11##c.res_ch2_polit11##c.log_pre_l1_reserves  polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if res_ch2_polit11 <= 2.168937, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1352
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.7236                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6479                                        {txt}avg = {res}     22.5
{txt}       overall = {res}0.6064                                        {txt}max = {res}       32

                                                {txt}F({res}21{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   144.21
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6636                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 127:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 62}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 63}{c |}{col 75}    Robust
{col 1}                                           log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 63}{c |}      Coef.{col 75}   Std. Err.{col 87}      t{col 95}   P>|t|{col 103}     [95% Con{col 116}f. Interval]
{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 39}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .8040158{col 75}{space 2} .0343073{col 86}{space 1}   23.44{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .7353671{col 116}{space 3} .8726645
{txt}{space 42}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0629498{col 75}{space 2} .0527434{col 86}{space 1}    1.19{col 95}{space 3}0.237{col 103}{space 4}-.0425896{col 116}{space 3} .1684891
{txt}{space 46}res_ch2_polit11 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .2351063{col 75}{space 2} .0656339{col 86}{space 1}    3.58{col 95}{space 3}0.001{col 103}{space 4} .1037731{col 116}{space 3} .3664394
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.polity_frac_polit11#c.res_ch2_polit11 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1592306{col 75}{space 2} .0707083{col 86}{space 1}   -2.25{col 95}{space 3}0.028{col 103}{space 4}-.3007175{col 116}{space 3}-.0177437
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 42}log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} -.021302{col 75}{space 2} .0325873{col 86}{space 1}   -0.65{col 95}{space 3}0.516{col 103}{space 4}-.0865091{col 116}{space 3}  .043905
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 18}c.polity_frac_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0296637{col 75}{space 2}  .038284{col 86}{space 1}    0.77{col 95}{space 3}0.442{col 103}{space 4}-.0469423{col 116}{space 3} .1062698
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.res_ch2_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.2246809{col 75}{space 2} .0680866{col 86}{space 1}   -3.30{col 95}{space 3}0.002{col 103}{space 4}-.3609219{col 116}{space 3}-.0884398
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit11#c.res_ch2_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1959021{col 75}{space 2} .0691213{col 86}{space 1}    2.83{col 95}{space 3}0.006{col 103}{space 4} .0575907{col 116}{space 3} .3342136
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 54}polity2 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0059883{col 75}{space 2} .0041582{col 86}{space 1}    1.44{col 95}{space 3}0.155{col 103}{space 4}-.0023323{col 116}{space 3} .0143089
{txt}{space 48}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0200467{col 75}{space 2} .0266713{col 86}{space 1}   -0.75{col 95}{space 3}0.455{col 103}{space 4}-.0734157{col 116}{space 3} .0333224
{txt}{space 47}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} -.002755{col 75}{space 2} .0022071{col 86}{space 1}   -1.25{col 95}{space 3}0.217{col 103}{space 4}-.0071714{col 116}{space 3} .0016615
{txt}{space 48}trade_balance {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0161115{col 75}{space 2} .0043665{col 86}{space 1}    3.69{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .0073741{col 116}{space 3}  .024849
{txt}{space 52}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0199089{col 75}{space 2} .0155681{col 86}{space 1}    1.28{col 95}{space 3}0.206{col 103}{space 4}-.0112428{col 116}{space 3} .0510606
{txt}{space 49}presidential {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1232448{col 75}{space 2} .0644066{col 86}{space 1}    1.91{col 95}{space 3}0.061{col 103}{space 4}-.0056324{col 116}{space 3} .2521221
{txt}{space 52}log_gdppc {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1544583{col 75}{space 2} .0692335{col 86}{space 1}   -2.23{col 95}{space 3}0.029{col 103}{space 4}-.2929941{col 116}{space 3}-.0159224
{txt}{space 51}gdp_growth {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0085833{col 75}{space 2} .0036263{col 86}{space 1}   -2.37{col 95}{space 3}0.021{col 103}{space 4}-.0158394{col 116}{space 3}-.0013272
{txt}{space 54}log_pop {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .3223141{col 75}{space 2} .2597304{col 86}{space 1}    1.24{col 95}{space 3}0.220{col 103}{space 4}-.1974052{col 116}{space 3} .8420333
{txt}{space 55}kaopen {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0077633{col 75}{space 2} .0148522{col 86}{space 1}   -0.52{col 95}{space 3}0.603{col 103}{space 4}-.0374826{col 116}{space 3}  .021956
{txt}{space 49}currency_peg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0229882{col 75}{space 2} .0402987{col 86}{space 1}    0.57{col 95}{space 3}0.571{col 103}{space 4}-.0576493{col 116}{space 3} .1036258
{txt}{space 46}currency_binary {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1432065{col 75}{space 2} .0299254{col 86}{space 1}   -4.79{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4}-.2030871{col 116}{space 3} -.083326
{txt}{space 51}time_trend {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}   .00274{col 75}{space 2} .0071245{col 86}{space 1}    0.38{col 95}{space 3}0.702{col 103}{space 4} -.011516{col 116}{space 3}  .016996
{txt}{space 56}_cons {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}  -4.0857{col 75}{space 2} 4.478426{col 86}{space 1}   -0.91{col 95}{space 3}0.365{col 103}{space 4}-13.04701{col 116}{space 3} 4.875609
{txt}{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                                      sigma_u {c |} {res} .50721157
                                                      {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .27597968
                                                          {txt}rho {c |} {res} .77157077{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 62}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab15
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit11) at(res_ch2_polit11 =(-0.8(0.2)1) log_pre_l1_reserves = (0.1484305  )) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1352
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit11 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .171475{col 33}{space 2} .0797179{col 44}{space 1}    2.15{col 53}{space 3}0.031{col 61}{space 4} .0152308{col 74}{space 3} .3277191
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1454444{col 33}{space 2} .0694782{col 44}{space 1}    2.09{col 53}{space 3}0.036{col 61}{space 4} .0092697{col 74}{space 3} .2816192
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1194139{col 33}{space 2} .0603414{col 44}{space 1}    1.98{col 53}{space 3}0.048{col 61}{space 4} .0011469{col 74}{space 3} .2376809
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0933833{col 33}{space 2} .0528823{col 44}{space 1}    1.77{col 53}{space 3}0.077{col 61}{space 4}-.0102641{col 74}{space 3} .1970307
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0673528{col 33}{space 2} .0478913{col 44}{space 1}    1.41{col 53}{space 3}0.160{col 61}{space 4}-.0265125{col 74}{space 3}  .161218
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0413222{col 33}{space 2} .0461758{col 44}{space 1}    0.89{col 53}{space 3}0.371{col 61}{space 4}-.0491806{col 74}{space 3} .1318251
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0152917{col 33}{space 2} .0480876{col 44}{space 1}    0.32{col 53}{space 3}0.750{col 61}{space 4}-.0789582{col 74}{space 3} .1095416
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0107389{col 33}{space 2} .0532373{col 44}{space 1}   -0.20{col 53}{space 3}0.840{col 61}{space 4}-.1150821{col 74}{space 3} .0936043
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0367694{col 33}{space 2} .0608079{col 44}{space 1}   -0.60{col 53}{space 3}0.545{col 61}{space 4}-.1559506{col 74}{space 3} .0824118
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}   -.0628{col 33}{space 2} .0700183{col 44}{space 1}   -0.90{col 53}{space 3}0.370{col 61}{space 4}-.2000334{col 74}{space 3} .0744334
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h4_polit11_l.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of top left panel of figure 4 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: res_ch2_polit11{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit11##c.res_ch2_polit11##c.log_pre_l1_reserves  polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if res_ch2_polit11 <= 2.168937, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1352
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.7236                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6479                                        {txt}avg = {res}     22.5
{txt}       overall = {res}0.6064                                        {txt}max = {res}       32

                                                {txt}F({res}21{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   144.21
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6636                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 127:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 62}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 63}{c |}{col 75}    Robust
{col 1}                                           log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 63}{c |}      Coef.{col 75}   Std. Err.{col 87}      t{col 95}   P>|t|{col 103}     [95% Con{col 116}f. Interval]
{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 39}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .8040158{col 75}{space 2} .0343073{col 86}{space 1}   23.44{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .7353671{col 116}{space 3} .8726645
{txt}{space 42}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0629498{col 75}{space 2} .0527434{col 86}{space 1}    1.19{col 95}{space 3}0.237{col 103}{space 4}-.0425896{col 116}{space 3} .1684891
{txt}{space 46}res_ch2_polit11 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .2351063{col 75}{space 2} .0656339{col 86}{space 1}    3.58{col 95}{space 3}0.001{col 103}{space 4} .1037731{col 116}{space 3} .3664394
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.polity_frac_polit11#c.res_ch2_polit11 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1592306{col 75}{space 2} .0707083{col 86}{space 1}   -2.25{col 95}{space 3}0.028{col 103}{space 4}-.3007175{col 116}{space 3}-.0177437
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 42}log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} -.021302{col 75}{space 2} .0325873{col 86}{space 1}   -0.65{col 95}{space 3}0.516{col 103}{space 4}-.0865091{col 116}{space 3}  .043905
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 18}c.polity_frac_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0296637{col 75}{space 2}  .038284{col 86}{space 1}    0.77{col 95}{space 3}0.442{col 103}{space 4}-.0469423{col 116}{space 3} .1062698
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.res_ch2_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.2246809{col 75}{space 2} .0680866{col 86}{space 1}   -3.30{col 95}{space 3}0.002{col 103}{space 4}-.3609219{col 116}{space 3}-.0884398
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit11#c.res_ch2_polit11#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1959021{col 75}{space 2} .0691213{col 86}{space 1}    2.83{col 95}{space 3}0.006{col 103}{space 4} .0575907{col 116}{space 3} .3342136
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 54}polity2 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0059883{col 75}{space 2} .0041582{col 86}{space 1}    1.44{col 95}{space 3}0.155{col 103}{space 4}-.0023323{col 116}{space 3} .0143089
{txt}{space 48}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0200467{col 75}{space 2} .0266713{col 86}{space 1}   -0.75{col 95}{space 3}0.455{col 103}{space 4}-.0734157{col 116}{space 3} .0333224
{txt}{space 47}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} -.002755{col 75}{space 2} .0022071{col 86}{space 1}   -1.25{col 95}{space 3}0.217{col 103}{space 4}-.0071714{col 116}{space 3} .0016615
{txt}{space 48}trade_balance {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0161115{col 75}{space 2} .0043665{col 86}{space 1}    3.69{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .0073741{col 116}{space 3}  .024849
{txt}{space 52}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0199089{col 75}{space 2} .0155681{col 86}{space 1}    1.28{col 95}{space 3}0.206{col 103}{space 4}-.0112428{col 116}{space 3} .0510606
{txt}{space 49}presidential {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1232448{col 75}{space 2} .0644066{col 86}{space 1}    1.91{col 95}{space 3}0.061{col 103}{space 4}-.0056324{col 116}{space 3} .2521221
{txt}{space 52}log_gdppc {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1544583{col 75}{space 2} .0692335{col 86}{space 1}   -2.23{col 95}{space 3}0.029{col 103}{space 4}-.2929941{col 116}{space 3}-.0159224
{txt}{space 51}gdp_growth {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0085833{col 75}{space 2} .0036263{col 86}{space 1}   -2.37{col 95}{space 3}0.021{col 103}{space 4}-.0158394{col 116}{space 3}-.0013272
{txt}{space 54}log_pop {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .3223141{col 75}{space 2} .2597304{col 86}{space 1}    1.24{col 95}{space 3}0.220{col 103}{space 4}-.1974052{col 116}{space 3} .8420333
{txt}{space 55}kaopen {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0077633{col 75}{space 2} .0148522{col 86}{space 1}   -0.52{col 95}{space 3}0.603{col 103}{space 4}-.0374826{col 116}{space 3}  .021956
{txt}{space 49}currency_peg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0229882{col 75}{space 2} .0402987{col 86}{space 1}    0.57{col 95}{space 3}0.571{col 103}{space 4}-.0576493{col 116}{space 3} .1036258
{txt}{space 46}currency_binary {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1432065{col 75}{space 2} .0299254{col 86}{space 1}   -4.79{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4}-.2030871{col 116}{space 3} -.083326
{txt}{space 51}time_trend {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}   .00274{col 75}{space 2} .0071245{col 86}{space 1}    0.38{col 95}{space 3}0.702{col 103}{space 4} -.011516{col 116}{space 3}  .016996
{txt}{space 56}_cons {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}  -4.0857{col 75}{space 2} 4.478426{col 86}{space 1}   -0.91{col 95}{space 3}0.365{col 103}{space 4}-13.04701{col 116}{space 3} 4.875609
{txt}{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                                      sigma_u {c |} {res} .50721157
                                                      {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .27597968
                                                          {txt}rho {c |} {res} .77157077{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 62}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit11) at(res_ch2_polit11 =(-0.8(0.2)1) log_pre_l1_reserves = (1.807025  )) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1352
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~11}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit11 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0392627{col 33}{space 2}   .08594{col 44}{space 1}   -0.46{col 53}{space 3}0.648{col 61}{space 4}-.2077021{col 74}{space 3} .1291767
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0003088{col 33}{space 2} .0677843{col 44}{space 1}   -0.00{col 53}{space 3}0.996{col 61}{space 4}-.1331635{col 74}{space 3} .1325459
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0386451{col 33}{space 2} .0513658{col 44}{space 1}    0.75{col 53}{space 3}0.452{col 61}{space 4}  -.06203{col 74}{space 3} .1393201
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .077599{col 33}{space 2} .0389475{col 44}{space 1}    1.99{col 53}{space 3}0.046{col 61}{space 4} .0012633{col 74}{space 3} .1539346
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1165529{col 33}{space 2} .0350727{col 44}{space 1}    3.32{col 53}{space 3}0.001{col 61}{space 4} .0478117{col 74}{space 3}  .185294
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1555068{col 33}{space 2} .0421664{col 44}{space 1}    3.69{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .0728622{col 74}{space 3} .2381513
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1944607{col 33}{space 2} .0562195{col 44}{space 1}    3.46{col 53}{space 3}0.001{col 61}{space 4} .0842724{col 74}{space 3} .3046489
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2334146{col 33}{space 2} .0733348{col 44}{space 1}    3.18{col 53}{space 3}0.001{col 61}{space 4} .0896809{col 74}{space 3} .3771482
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2723684{col 33}{space 2} .0918155{col 44}{space 1}    2.97{col 53}{space 3}0.003{col 61}{space 4} .0924135{col 74}{space 3} .4523234
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .3113223{col 33}{space 2} .1109815{col 44}{space 1}    2.81{col 53}{space 3}0.005{col 61}{space 4} .0938027{col 74}{space 3}  .528842
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h4_polit11_h.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of bottom left panel of figure 4 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: res_ch2_polit11{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * d) Weighted changes in effective executive (Model 8, Table 1)
. * Due to the posting of the marginal effects generated by margins
. * the models are run twice, once for each margins call
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit12##c.res_ch2_polit12##c.log_pre_l1_reserves  polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if res_ch2_polit12 <= 2.168937, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1352
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.7200                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6820                                        {txt}avg = {res}     22.5
{txt}       overall = {res}0.6337                                        {txt}max = {res}       32

                                                {txt}F({res}21{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   148.82
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6399                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 127:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 62}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 63}{c |}{col 75}    Robust
{col 1}                                           log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 63}{c |}      Coef.{col 75}   Std. Err.{col 87}      t{col 95}   P>|t|{col 103}     [95% Con{col 116}f. Interval]
{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 39}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .8135055{col 75}{space 2} .0344101{col 86}{space 1}   23.64{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .7446511{col 116}{space 3} .8823599
{txt}{space 42}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0242869{col 75}{space 2} .0547068{col 86}{space 1}    0.44{col 95}{space 3}0.659{col 103}{space 4}-.0851811{col 116}{space 3}  .133755
{txt}{space 46}res_ch2_polit12 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1679297{col 75}{space 2} .0575959{col 86}{space 1}    2.92{col 95}{space 3}0.005{col 103}{space 4} .0526805{col 116}{space 3} .2831789
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.polity_frac_polit12#c.res_ch2_polit12 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} -.116903{col 75}{space 2} .0834502{col 86}{space 1}   -1.40{col 95}{space 3}0.166{col 103}{space 4}-.2838865{col 116}{space 3} .0500805
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 42}log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0108293{col 75}{space 2} .0279104{col 86}{space 1}   -0.39{col 95}{space 3}0.699{col 103}{space 4}-.0666779{col 116}{space 3} .0450192
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 18}c.polity_frac_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}  .034957{col 75}{space 2} .0384588{col 86}{space 1}    0.91{col 95}{space 3}0.367{col 103}{space 4}-.0419988{col 116}{space 3} .1119128
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.res_ch2_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1004241{col 75}{space 2} .0409116{col 86}{space 1}   -2.45{col 95}{space 3}0.017{col 103}{space 4} -.182288{col 116}{space 3}-.0185601
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit12#c.res_ch2_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0902273{col 75}{space 2} .0664897{col 86}{space 1}    1.36{col 95}{space 3}0.180{col 103}{space 4}-.0428184{col 116}{space 3}  .223273
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 54}polity2 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0064416{col 75}{space 2} .0040311{col 86}{space 1}    1.60{col 95}{space 3}0.115{col 103}{space 4}-.0016247{col 116}{space 3} .0145079
{txt}{space 48}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0270436{col 75}{space 2} .0300948{col 86}{space 1}   -0.90{col 95}{space 3}0.373{col 103}{space 4}-.0872632{col 116}{space 3} .0331761
{txt}{space 47}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0026285{col 75}{space 2} .0021385{col 86}{space 1}   -1.23{col 95}{space 3}0.224{col 103}{space 4}-.0069075{col 116}{space 3} .0016506
{txt}{space 48}trade_balance {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0164644{col 75}{space 2} .0042057{col 86}{space 1}    3.91{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .0080488{col 116}{space 3} .0248801
{txt}{space 52}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0167146{col 75}{space 2} .0150345{col 86}{space 1}    1.11{col 95}{space 3}0.271{col 103}{space 4}-.0133694{col 116}{space 3} .0467985
{txt}{space 49}presidential {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1132217{col 75}{space 2} .0639767{col 86}{space 1}    1.77{col 95}{space 3}0.082{col 103}{space 4}-.0147954{col 116}{space 3} .2412388
{txt}{space 52}log_gdppc {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1540706{col 75}{space 2} .0714889{col 86}{space 1}   -2.16{col 95}{space 3}0.035{col 103}{space 4}-.2971196{col 116}{space 3}-.0110217
{txt}{space 51}gdp_growth {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0089045{col 75}{space 2} .0036895{col 86}{space 1}   -2.41{col 95}{space 3}0.019{col 103}{space 4}-.0162872{col 116}{space 3}-.0015218
{txt}{space 54}log_pop {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .2902201{col 75}{space 2}  .253628{col 86}{space 1}    1.14{col 95}{space 3}0.257{col 103}{space 4}-.2172883{col 116}{space 3} .7977285
{txt}{space 55}kaopen {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0094034{col 75}{space 2} .0149286{col 86}{space 1}   -0.63{col 95}{space 3}0.531{col 103}{space 4}-.0392755{col 116}{space 3} .0204687
{txt}{space 49}currency_peg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0183535{col 75}{space 2} .0401197{col 86}{space 1}    0.46{col 95}{space 3}0.649{col 103}{space 4}-.0619259{col 116}{space 3} .0986329
{txt}{space 46}currency_binary {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1425281{col 75}{space 2} .0310966{col 86}{space 1}   -4.58{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4}-.2047523{col 116}{space 3}-.0803038
{txt}{space 51}time_trend {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0024307{col 75}{space 2}  .007094{col 86}{space 1}    0.34{col 95}{space 3}0.733{col 103}{space 4}-.0117644{col 116}{space 3} .0166257
{txt}{space 56}_cons {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-3.522328{col 75}{space 2} 4.419835{col 86}{space 1}   -0.80{col 95}{space 3}0.429{col 103}{space 4} -12.3664{col 116}{space 3} 5.321742
{txt}{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                                      sigma_u {c |} {res} .46582976
                                                      {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .27772304
                                                          {txt}rho {c |} {res} .73776645{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 62}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab16
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit12) at(res_ch2_polit12 =(-0.8(0.2)1) log_pre_l1_reserves = (0.1484305  )) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1352
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1484305}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit12 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .112284{col 33}{space 2} .0797618{col 44}{space 1}    1.41{col 53}{space 3}0.159{col 61}{space 4}-.0440464{col 74}{space 3} .2686144
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0915819{col 33}{space 2} .0686274{col 44}{space 1}    1.33{col 53}{space 3}0.182{col 61}{space 4}-.0429254{col 74}{space 3} .2260892
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0708798{col 33}{space 2} .0592752{col 44}{space 1}    1.20{col 53}{space 3}0.232{col 61}{space 4}-.0452975{col 74}{space 3} .1870571
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0501777{col 33}{space 2} .0526634{col 44}{space 1}    0.95{col 53}{space 3}0.341{col 61}{space 4}-.0530406{col 74}{space 3}  .153396
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0294756{col 33}{space 2} .0498935{col 44}{space 1}    0.59{col 53}{space 3}0.555{col 61}{space 4}-.0683139{col 74}{space 3} .1272651
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0087735{col 33}{space 2} .0515883{col 44}{space 1}    0.17{col 53}{space 3}0.865{col 61}{space 4}-.0923376{col 74}{space 3} .1098847
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0119286{col 33}{space 2} .0573532{col 44}{space 1}   -0.21{col 53}{space 3}0.835{col 61}{space 4}-.1243388{col 74}{space 3} .1004816
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0326307{col 33}{space 2} .0661323{col 44}{space 1}   -0.49{col 53}{space 3}0.622{col 61}{space 4}-.1622476{col 74}{space 3} .0969863
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0533328{col 33}{space 2} .0769001{col 44}{space 1}   -0.69{col 53}{space 3}0.488{col 61}{space 4}-.2040543{col 74}{space 3} .0973887
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0740349{col 33}{space 2} .0889372{col 44}{space 1}   -0.83{col 53}{space 3}0.405{col 61}{space 4}-.2483486{col 74}{space 3} .1002789
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h4_polit12_l.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of top right panel of figure 4 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: res_ch2_polit12{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * Have to rerun model to get 2nd margins
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit12##c.res_ch2_polit12##c.log_pre_l1_reserves  polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if res_ch2_polit12 <= 2.168937, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1352
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.7200                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6820                                        {txt}avg = {res}     22.5
{txt}       overall = {res}0.6337                                        {txt}max = {res}       32

                                                {txt}F({res}21{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   148.82
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6399                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 127:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 62}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 63}{c |}{col 75}    Robust
{col 1}                                           log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 63}{c |}      Coef.{col 75}   Std. Err.{col 87}      t{col 95}   P>|t|{col 103}     [95% Con{col 116}f. Interval]
{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 39}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .8135055{col 75}{space 2} .0344101{col 86}{space 1}   23.64{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .7446511{col 116}{space 3} .8823599
{txt}{space 42}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0242869{col 75}{space 2} .0547068{col 86}{space 1}    0.44{col 95}{space 3}0.659{col 103}{space 4}-.0851811{col 116}{space 3}  .133755
{txt}{space 46}res_ch2_polit12 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1679297{col 75}{space 2} .0575959{col 86}{space 1}    2.92{col 95}{space 3}0.005{col 103}{space 4} .0526805{col 116}{space 3} .2831789
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.polity_frac_polit12#c.res_ch2_polit12 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} -.116903{col 75}{space 2} .0834502{col 86}{space 1}   -1.40{col 95}{space 3}0.166{col 103}{space 4}-.2838865{col 116}{space 3} .0500805
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 42}log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0108293{col 75}{space 2} .0279104{col 86}{space 1}   -0.39{col 95}{space 3}0.699{col 103}{space 4}-.0666779{col 116}{space 3} .0450192
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 18}c.polity_frac_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}  .034957{col 75}{space 2} .0384588{col 86}{space 1}    0.91{col 95}{space 3}0.367{col 103}{space 4}-.0419988{col 116}{space 3} .1119128
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 22}c.res_ch2_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1004241{col 75}{space 2} .0409116{col 86}{space 1}   -2.45{col 95}{space 3}0.017{col 103}{space 4} -.182288{col 116}{space 3}-.0185601
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit12#c.res_ch2_polit12#c.log_pre_l1_reserves {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0902273{col 75}{space 2} .0664897{col 86}{space 1}    1.36{col 95}{space 3}0.180{col 103}{space 4}-.0428184{col 116}{space 3}  .223273
{txt}{space 61} {c |}
{space 54}polity2 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0064416{col 75}{space 2} .0040311{col 86}{space 1}    1.60{col 95}{space 3}0.115{col 103}{space 4}-.0016247{col 116}{space 3} .0145079
{txt}{space 48}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0270436{col 75}{space 2} .0300948{col 86}{space 1}   -0.90{col 95}{space 3}0.373{col 103}{space 4}-.0872632{col 116}{space 3} .0331761
{txt}{space 47}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0026285{col 75}{space 2} .0021385{col 86}{space 1}   -1.23{col 95}{space 3}0.224{col 103}{space 4}-.0069075{col 116}{space 3} .0016506
{txt}{space 48}trade_balance {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0164644{col 75}{space 2} .0042057{col 86}{space 1}    3.91{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4} .0080488{col 116}{space 3} .0248801
{txt}{space 52}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0167146{col 75}{space 2} .0150345{col 86}{space 1}    1.11{col 95}{space 3}0.271{col 103}{space 4}-.0133694{col 116}{space 3} .0467985
{txt}{space 49}presidential {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .1132217{col 75}{space 2} .0639767{col 86}{space 1}    1.77{col 95}{space 3}0.082{col 103}{space 4}-.0147954{col 116}{space 3} .2412388
{txt}{space 52}log_gdppc {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1540706{col 75}{space 2} .0714889{col 86}{space 1}   -2.16{col 95}{space 3}0.035{col 103}{space 4}-.2971196{col 116}{space 3}-.0110217
{txt}{space 51}gdp_growth {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0089045{col 75}{space 2} .0036895{col 86}{space 1}   -2.41{col 95}{space 3}0.019{col 103}{space 4}-.0162872{col 116}{space 3}-.0015218
{txt}{space 54}log_pop {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .2902201{col 75}{space 2}  .253628{col 86}{space 1}    1.14{col 95}{space 3}0.257{col 103}{space 4}-.2172883{col 116}{space 3} .7977285
{txt}{space 55}kaopen {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.0094034{col 75}{space 2} .0149286{col 86}{space 1}   -0.63{col 95}{space 3}0.531{col 103}{space 4}-.0392755{col 116}{space 3} .0204687
{txt}{space 49}currency_peg {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0183535{col 75}{space 2} .0401197{col 86}{space 1}    0.46{col 95}{space 3}0.649{col 103}{space 4}-.0619259{col 116}{space 3} .0986329
{txt}{space 46}currency_binary {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-.1425281{col 75}{space 2} .0310966{col 86}{space 1}   -4.58{col 95}{space 3}0.000{col 103}{space 4}-.2047523{col 116}{space 3}-.0803038
{txt}{space 51}time_trend {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2} .0024307{col 75}{space 2}  .007094{col 86}{space 1}    0.34{col 95}{space 3}0.733{col 103}{space 4}-.0117644{col 116}{space 3} .0166257
{txt}{space 56}_cons {c |}{col 63}{res}{space 2}-3.522328{col 75}{space 2} 4.419835{col 86}{space 1}   -0.80{col 95}{space 3}0.429{col 103}{space 4} -12.3664{col 116}{space 3} 5.321742
{txt}{hline 62}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                                      sigma_u {c |} {res} .46582976
                                                      {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .27772304
                                                          {txt}rho {c |} {res} .73776645{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 62}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit12) at(res_ch2_polit12 =(-0.8(0.2)1) log_pre_l1_reserves = (1.807025  )) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1352
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 8}-.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.6}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 9}.8}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:res_ch2_p~12}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:log_pre_l1~s}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.807025}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit12 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0505431{col 33}{space 2} .0684502{col 44}{space 1}    0.74{col 53}{space 3}0.460{col 61}{space 4}-.0836169{col 74}{space 3} .1847031
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0597711{col 33}{space 2} .0570792{col 44}{space 1}    1.05{col 53}{space 3}0.295{col 61}{space 4}-.0521021{col 74}{space 3} .1716443
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0689991{col 33}{space 2} .0470893{col 44}{space 1}    1.47{col 53}{space 3}0.143{col 61}{space 4}-.0232942{col 74}{space 3} .1612925
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0782271{col 33}{space 2} .0395416{col 44}{space 1}    1.98{col 53}{space 3}0.048{col 61}{space 4}  .000727{col 74}{space 3} .1557272
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0874551{col 33}{space 2}  .036006{col 44}{space 1}    2.43{col 53}{space 3}0.015{col 61}{space 4} .0168846{col 74}{space 3} .1580256
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0966831{col 33}{space 2} .0376311{col 44}{space 1}    2.57{col 53}{space 3}0.010{col 61}{space 4} .0229276{col 74}{space 3} .1704387
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1059111{col 33}{space 2} .0438466{col 44}{space 1}    2.42{col 53}{space 3}0.016{col 61}{space 4} .0199733{col 74}{space 3} .1918489
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1151391{col 33}{space 2} .0530634{col 44}{space 1}    2.17{col 53}{space 3}0.030{col 61}{space 4} .0111368{col 74}{space 3} .2191414
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1243671{col 33}{space 2} .0639975{col 44}{space 1}    1.94{col 53}{space 3}0.052{col 61}{space 4}-.0010657{col 74}{space 3}    .2498
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1335951{col 33}{space 2} .0759105{col 44}{space 1}    1.76{col 53}{space 3}0.078{col 61}{space 4}-.0151868{col 74}{space 3}  .282377
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h4_polit12_h.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of bottom right panel of figure 4 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: res_ch2_polit12{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * Appendix Table 6
. **esttab tab13 tab14 tab15 tab16 using estim_res_3i.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f)  title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. 
. 
. 
. * H5: interest rates
. 
. * a) Unweighted major cabinet changes
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit11_binary##c.ir_diff polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if cowcode != 2 , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1248
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       57

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6443                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5601                                        {txt}avg = {res}     21.9
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5141                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}56{txt})           = {res}    78.44
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6611                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 94:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 29}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 30}{c |}{col 42}    Robust
{col 1}          log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 30}{c |}      Coef.{col 42}   Std. Err.{col 54}      t{col 62}   P>|t|{col 70}     [95% Con{col 83}f. Interval]
{hline 29}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .7859091{col 42}{space 2} .0483267{col 53}{space 1}   16.26{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} .6890992{col 83}{space 3}  .882719
{txt}{space 8}1.sum_polit11_binary {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0132969{col 42}{space 2} .0373212{col 53}{space 1}    0.36{col 62}{space 3}0.723{col 70}{space 4}-.0614664{col 83}{space 3} .0880602
{txt}{space 21}ir_diff {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0666489{col 42}{space 2} .2419572{col 53}{space 1}   -0.28{col 62}{space 3}0.784{col 70}{space 4}-.5513474{col 83}{space 3} .4180495
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
sum_polit11_binary#c.ir_diff {c |}
{space 26}1  {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0357681{col 42}{space 2} .2503366{col 53}{space 1}   -0.14{col 62}{space 3}0.887{col 70}{space 4}-.5372526{col 83}{space 3} .4657165
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
{space 21}polity2 {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}  .005672{col 42}{space 2} .0033581{col 53}{space 1}    1.69{col 62}{space 3}0.097{col 70}{space 4} -.001055{col 83}{space 3}  .012399
{txt}{space 15}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} -.015809{col 42}{space 2} .0305096{col 53}{space 1}   -0.52{col 62}{space 3}0.606{col 70}{space 4}-.0769271{col 83}{space 3} .0453092
{txt}{space 14}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0034695{col 42}{space 2} .0021264{col 53}{space 1}   -1.63{col 62}{space 3}0.108{col 70}{space 4}-.0077292{col 83}{space 3} .0007902
{txt}{space 15}trade_balance {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0130505{col 42}{space 2} .0044541{col 53}{space 1}    2.93{col 62}{space 3}0.005{col 70}{space 4} .0041278{col 83}{space 3} .0219732
{txt}{space 19}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0019572{col 42}{space 2} .0160177{col 53}{space 1}    0.12{col 62}{space 3}0.903{col 70}{space 4}  -.03013{col 83}{space 3} .0340445
{txt}{space 16}presidential {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .1212743{col 42}{space 2} .0626075{col 53}{space 1}    1.94{col 62}{space 3}0.058{col 70}{space 4}-.0041435{col 83}{space 3} .2466921
{txt}{space 19}log_gdppc {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.1026745{col 42}{space 2} .0708996{col 53}{space 1}   -1.45{col 62}{space 3}0.153{col 70}{space 4}-.2447034{col 83}{space 3} .0393544
{txt}{space 18}gdp_growth {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0073423{col 42}{space 2} .0043032{col 53}{space 1}   -1.71{col 62}{space 3}0.094{col 70}{space 4}-.0159626{col 83}{space 3}  .001278
{txt}{space 21}log_pop {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .3722749{col 42}{space 2} .2634954{col 53}{space 1}    1.41{col 62}{space 3}0.163{col 70}{space 4}-.1555699{col 83}{space 3} .9001197
{txt}{space 22}kaopen {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0187608{col 42}{space 2} .0142296{col 53}{space 1}   -1.32{col 62}{space 3}0.193{col 70}{space 4}-.0472662{col 83}{space 3} .0097446
{txt}{space 16}currency_peg {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0321274{col 42}{space 2} .0407835{col 53}{space 1}    0.79{col 62}{space 3}0.434{col 70}{space 4}-.0495717{col 83}{space 3} .1138265
{txt}{space 13}currency_binary {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.1312145{col 42}{space 2} .0318586{col 53}{space 1}   -4.12{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} -.195035{col 83}{space 3}-.0673939
{txt}{space 18}time_trend {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0001945{col 42}{space 2} .0065118{col 53}{space 1}    0.03{col 62}{space 3}0.976{col 70}{space 4}-.0128503{col 83}{space 3} .0132392
{txt}{space 23}_cons {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-5.169557{col 42}{space 2} 4.569082{col 53}{space 1}   -1.13{col 62}{space 3}0.263{col 70}{space 4}-14.32253{col 83}{space 3} 3.983415
{txt}{hline 29}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                     sigma_u {c |} {res} .52465987
                     {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28441991
                         {txt}rho {c |} {res} .77287151{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 29}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab17
{txt}
{com}. 
. * b) Weighted major cabinet changes (Model 9, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit11##c.ir_diff polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if cowcode != 2 , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1246
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       57

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6436                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5473                                        {txt}avg = {res}     21.9
{txt}       overall = {res}0.4980                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}56{txt})           = {res}    65.29
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6794                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 97:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 32}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 33}{c |}{col 45}    Robust
{col 1}             log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 33}{c |}      Coef.{col 45}   Std. Err.{col 57}      t{col 65}   P>|t|{col 73}     [95% Con{col 86}f. Interval]
{hline 32}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .7852321{col 45}{space 2} .0479191{col 56}{space 1}   16.39{col 65}{space 3}0.000{col 73}{space 4} .6892386{col 86}{space 3} .8812257
{txt}{space 12}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0200609{col 45}{space 2} .0244494{col 56}{space 1}    0.82{col 65}{space 3}0.415{col 73}{space 4} -.028917{col 86}{space 3} .0690389
{txt}{space 24}ir_diff {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} -.004794{col 45}{space 2}  .057465{col 56}{space 1}   -0.08{col 65}{space 3}0.934{col 73}{space 4}-.1199102{col 86}{space 3} .1103222
{txt}{space 31} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit11#c.ir_diff {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.2385929{col 45}{space 2} .1609326{col 56}{space 1}   -1.48{col 65}{space 3}0.144{col 73}{space 4}-.5609795{col 86}{space 3} .0837938
{txt}{space 31} {c |}
{space 24}polity2 {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0053673{col 45}{space 2} .0035229{col 56}{space 1}    1.52{col 65}{space 3}0.133{col 73}{space 4}-.0016899{col 86}{space 3} .0124245
{txt}{space 18}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0096101{col 45}{space 2} .0305287{col 56}{space 1}   -0.31{col 65}{space 3}0.754{col 73}{space 4}-.0707665{col 86}{space 3} .0515463
{txt}{space 17}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0034944{col 45}{space 2} .0021243{col 56}{space 1}   -1.64{col 65}{space 3}0.106{col 73}{space 4}-.0077499{col 86}{space 3} .0007611
{txt}{space 18}trade_balance {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0125599{col 45}{space 2} .0044022{col 56}{space 1}    2.85{col 65}{space 3}0.006{col 73}{space 4} .0037412{col 86}{space 3} .0213786
{txt}{space 22}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0022742{col 45}{space 2} .0159252{col 56}{space 1}    0.14{col 65}{space 3}0.887{col 73}{space 4}-.0296279{col 86}{space 3} .0341763
{txt}{space 19}presidential {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .1145914{col 45}{space 2} .0648996{col 56}{space 1}    1.77{col 65}{space 3}0.083{col 73}{space 4}-.0154181{col 86}{space 3}  .244601
{txt}{space 22}log_gdppc {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.1000723{col 45}{space 2}  .071696{col 56}{space 1}   -1.40{col 65}{space 3}0.168{col 73}{space 4}-.2436966{col 86}{space 3}  .043552
{txt}{space 21}gdp_growth {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0075317{col 45}{space 2} .0042617{col 56}{space 1}   -1.77{col 65}{space 3}0.083{col 73}{space 4}-.0160689{col 86}{space 3} .0010055
{txt}{space 24}log_pop {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .3955864{col 45}{space 2} .2701881{col 56}{space 1}    1.46{col 65}{space 3}0.149{col 73}{space 4}-.1456654{col 86}{space 3} .9368382
{txt}{space 25}kaopen {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0148466{col 45}{space 2} .0147624{col 56}{space 1}   -1.01{col 65}{space 3}0.319{col 73}{space 4}-.0444193{col 86}{space 3} .0147261
{txt}{space 19}currency_peg {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0286118{col 45}{space 2} .0410146{col 56}{space 1}    0.70{col 65}{space 3}0.488{col 73}{space 4}-.0535504{col 86}{space 3}  .110774
{txt}{space 16}currency_binary {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.1363505{col 45}{space 2} .0318701{col 56}{space 1}   -4.28{col 65}{space 3}0.000{col 73}{space 4}-.2001939{col 86}{space 3}-.0725071
{txt}{space 21}time_trend {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0003401{col 45}{space 2} .0066714{col 56}{space 1}   -0.05{col 65}{space 3}0.960{col 73}{space 4}-.0137046{col 86}{space 3} .0130244
{txt}{space 26}_cons {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-5.556695{col 45}{space 2} 4.684837{col 56}{space 1}   -1.19{col 65}{space 3}0.241{col 73}{space 4}-14.94155{col 86}{space 3} 3.828161
{txt}{hline 32}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                        sigma_u {c |} {res} .54960132
                        {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28381314
                            {txt}rho {c |} {res} .78947341{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 32}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab18
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit11) at(ir_diff = (-.55(0.1)0.25)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1246
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.55}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.45}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.35}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 8}.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 8}.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 8}.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit11 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .151287{col 33}{space 2} .0831545{col 44}{space 1}    1.82{col 53}{space 3}0.069{col 61}{space 4}-.0116929{col 74}{space 3} .3142669
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1274277{col 33}{space 2} .0678283{col 44}{space 1}    1.88{col 53}{space 3}0.060{col 61}{space 4}-.0055134{col 74}{space 3} .2603688
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1035684{col 33}{space 2} .0529591{col 44}{space 1}    1.96{col 53}{space 3}0.051{col 61}{space 4}-.0002296{col 74}{space 3} .2073664
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0797091{col 33}{space 2} .0390723{col 44}{space 1}    2.04{col 53}{space 3}0.041{col 61}{space 4} .0031288{col 74}{space 3} .1562895
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0558499{col 33}{space 2} .0276877{col 44}{space 1}    2.02{col 53}{space 3}0.044{col 61}{space 4}  .001583{col 74}{space 3} .1101167
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0319906{col 33}{space 2} .0229031{col 44}{space 1}    1.40{col 53}{space 3}0.162{col 61}{space 4}-.0128987{col 74}{space 3} .0768799
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0081313{col 33}{space 2} .0282929{col 44}{space 1}    0.29{col 53}{space 3}0.774{col 61}{space 4}-.0473217{col 74}{space 3} .0635842
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} -.015728{col 33}{space 2}   .03993{col 44}{space 1}   -0.39{col 53}{space 3}0.694{col 61}{space 4}-.0939893{col 74}{space 3} .0625333
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0395873{col 33}{space 2} .0539102{col 44}{space 1}   -0.73{col 53}{space 3}0.463{col 61}{space 4}-.1452493{col 74}{space 3} .0660747
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h5_polit11.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of left panel of figure 5 in main text
. marginsplot 

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: ir_diff{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * c) Unweighted change in effective executive
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit12_binary##c.ir_diff polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if cowcode != 2 , fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1248
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       57

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6448                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5628                                        {txt}avg = {res}     21.9
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5154                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}56{txt})           = {res}    68.09
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6623                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 94:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 29}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 30}{c |}{col 42}    Robust
{col 1}          log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 30}{c |}      Coef.{col 42}   Std. Err.{col 54}      t{col 62}   P>|t|{col 70}     [95% Con{col 83}f. Interval]
{hline 29}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .7857918{col 42}{space 2} .0485785{col 53}{space 1}   16.18{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} .6884773{col 83}{space 3} .8831063
{txt}{space 8}1.sum_polit12_binary {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0401679{col 42}{space 2} .0338816{col 53}{space 1}    1.19{col 62}{space 3}0.241{col 70}{space 4}-.0277052{col 83}{space 3} .1080409
{txt}{space 21}ir_diff {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.1346063{col 42}{space 2} .2819652{col 53}{space 1}   -0.48{col 62}{space 3}0.635{col 70}{space 4}-.6994505{col 83}{space 3} .4302379
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
sum_polit12_binary#c.ir_diff {c |}
{space 26}1  {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0358902{col 42}{space 2} .2855858{col 53}{space 1}    0.13{col 62}{space 3}0.900{col 70}{space 4}-.5362068{col 83}{space 3} .6079873
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
{space 21}polity2 {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0056659{col 42}{space 2} .0033418{col 53}{space 1}    1.70{col 62}{space 3}0.096{col 70}{space 4}-.0010285{col 83}{space 3} .0123603
{txt}{space 15}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0222558{col 42}{space 2} .0310546{col 53}{space 1}   -0.72{col 62}{space 3}0.477{col 70}{space 4}-.0844657{col 83}{space 3} .0399541
{txt}{space 14}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0033394{col 42}{space 2} .0020835{col 53}{space 1}   -1.60{col 62}{space 3}0.115{col 70}{space 4}-.0075131{col 83}{space 3} .0008343
{txt}{space 15}trade_balance {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}  .012943{col 42}{space 2} .0044399{col 53}{space 1}    2.92{col 62}{space 3}0.005{col 70}{space 4} .0040488{col 83}{space 3} .0218372
{txt}{space 19}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0028886{col 42}{space 2} .0159377{col 53}{space 1}    0.18{col 62}{space 3}0.857{col 70}{space 4}-.0290384{col 83}{space 3} .0348156
{txt}{space 16}presidential {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .1259415{col 42}{space 2} .0621545{col 53}{space 1}    2.03{col 62}{space 3}0.048{col 70}{space 4}  .001431{col 83}{space 3}  .250452
{txt}{space 19}log_gdppc {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.1025352{col 42}{space 2} .0710337{col 53}{space 1}   -1.44{col 62}{space 3}0.154{col 70}{space 4}-.2448327{col 83}{space 3} .0397623
{txt}{space 18}gdp_growth {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0072393{col 42}{space 2}  .004315{col 53}{space 1}   -1.68{col 62}{space 3}0.099{col 70}{space 4}-.0158833{col 83}{space 3} .0014046
{txt}{space 21}log_pop {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .3730767{col 42}{space 2} .2643254{col 53}{space 1}    1.41{col 62}{space 3}0.164{col 70}{space 4}-.1564308{col 83}{space 3} .9025842
{txt}{space 22}kaopen {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0185627{col 42}{space 2} .0154256{col 53}{space 1}   -1.20{col 62}{space 3}0.234{col 70}{space 4} -.049464{col 83}{space 3} .0123385
{txt}{space 16}currency_peg {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}  .029739{col 42}{space 2} .0403192{col 53}{space 1}    0.74{col 62}{space 3}0.464{col 70}{space 4}  -.05103{col 83}{space 3} .1105081
{txt}{space 13}currency_binary {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.1306265{col 42}{space 2} .0317648{col 53}{space 1}   -4.11{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4}-.1942591{col 83}{space 3}-.0669939
{txt}{space 18}time_trend {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0004449{col 42}{space 2}  .006472{col 53}{space 1}    0.07{col 62}{space 3}0.945{col 70}{space 4}  -.01252{col 83}{space 3} .0134099
{txt}{space 23}_cons {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-5.203564{col 42}{space 2} 4.585007{col 53}{space 1}   -1.13{col 62}{space 3}0.261{col 70}{space 4}-14.38844{col 83}{space 3} 3.981308
{txt}{hline 29}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                     sigma_u {c |} {res} .52413177
                     {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28421642
                         {txt}rho {c |} {res} .77276922{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 29}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab19
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * d) Weighted changes in effective executive (Model 10, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit12##c.ir_diff polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance cbi_irreg presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend if cowcode != 2, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1246
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       57

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6437                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5564                                        {txt}avg = {res}     21.9
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5049                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}17{txt},{res}56{txt})           = {res}    66.96
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6725                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 97:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:57} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 32}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 33}{c |}{col 45}    Robust
{col 1}             log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 33}{c |}      Coef.{col 45}   Std. Err.{col 57}      t{col 65}   P>|t|{col 73}     [95% Con{col 86}f. Interval]
{hline 32}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .7816729{col 45}{space 2} .0489605{col 56}{space 1}   15.97{col 65}{space 3}0.000{col 73}{space 4} .6835933{col 86}{space 3} .8797525
{txt}{space 12}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0360807{col 45}{space 2} .0322272{col 56}{space 1}    1.12{col 65}{space 3}0.268{col 73}{space 4} -.028478{col 86}{space 3} .1006395
{txt}{space 24}ir_diff {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0185341{col 45}{space 2} .0708501{col 56}{space 1}   -0.26{col 65}{space 3}0.795{col 73}{space 4}-.1604638{col 86}{space 3} .1233957
{txt}{space 31} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit12#c.ir_diff {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.2131941{col 45}{space 2} .1623545{col 56}{space 1}   -1.31{col 65}{space 3}0.194{col 73}{space 4}-.5384292{col 86}{space 3} .1120409
{txt}{space 31} {c |}
{space 24}polity2 {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}  .004914{col 45}{space 2} .0034018{col 56}{space 1}    1.44{col 65}{space 3}0.154{col 73}{space 4}-.0019007{col 86}{space 3} .0117287
{txt}{space 18}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0146201{col 45}{space 2} .0319297{col 56}{space 1}   -0.46{col 65}{space 3}0.649{col 73}{space 4} -.078583{col 86}{space 3} .0493429
{txt}{space 17}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0032285{col 45}{space 2} .0021117{col 56}{space 1}   -1.53{col 65}{space 3}0.132{col 73}{space 4}-.0074587{col 86}{space 3} .0010017
{txt}{space 18}trade_balance {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0126584{col 45}{space 2} .0043487{col 56}{space 1}    2.91{col 65}{space 3}0.005{col 73}{space 4} .0039468{col 86}{space 3} .0213699
{txt}{space 22}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0029788{col 45}{space 2} .0158865{col 56}{space 1}    0.19{col 65}{space 3}0.852{col 73}{space 4}-.0288457{col 86}{space 3} .0348033
{txt}{space 19}presidential {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .1250602{col 45}{space 2} .0642374{col 56}{space 1}    1.95{col 65}{space 3}0.057{col 73}{space 4}-.0036228{col 86}{space 3} .2537433
{txt}{space 22}log_gdppc {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0965867{col 45}{space 2} .0727192{col 56}{space 1}   -1.33{col 65}{space 3}0.189{col 73}{space 4}-.2422608{col 86}{space 3} .0490874
{txt}{space 21}gdp_growth {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0073874{col 45}{space 2} .0042948{col 56}{space 1}   -1.72{col 65}{space 3}0.091{col 73}{space 4} -.015991{col 86}{space 3} .0012161
{txt}{space 24}log_pop {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .3898351{col 45}{space 2} .2647745{col 56}{space 1}    1.47{col 65}{space 3}0.147{col 73}{space 4}-.1405719{col 86}{space 3} .9202422
{txt}{space 25}kaopen {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0165029{col 45}{space 2} .0140928{col 56}{space 1}   -1.17{col 65}{space 3}0.247{col 73}{space 4}-.0447342{col 86}{space 3} .0117284
{txt}{space 19}currency_peg {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2} .0299715{col 45}{space 2} .0409955{col 56}{space 1}    0.73{col 65}{space 3}0.468{col 73}{space 4}-.0521524{col 86}{space 3} .1120954
{txt}{space 16}currency_binary {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.1367354{col 45}{space 2} .0315812{col 56}{space 1}   -4.33{col 65}{space 3}0.000{col 73}{space 4}-.2000003{col 86}{space 3}-.0734706
{txt}{space 21}time_trend {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-.0003351{col 45}{space 2} .0066725{col 56}{space 1}   -0.05{col 65}{space 3}0.960{col 73}{space 4}-.0137018{col 86}{space 3} .0130316
{txt}{space 26}_cons {c |}{col 33}{res}{space 2}-5.486253{col 45}{space 2} 4.610557{col 56}{space 1}   -1.19{col 65}{space 3}0.239{col 73}{space 4}-14.72231{col 86}{space 3} 3.749802
{txt}{hline 32}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                        sigma_u {c |} {res}  .5385414
                        {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28376847
                            {txt}rho {c |} {res} .78268993{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 32}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab20
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit12) at(ir_diff = (-.55(0.1)0.25)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1246
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.55}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.45}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.35}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 7}-.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 8}.05}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 8}.15}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:ir_diff}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 8}.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit12 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1533375{col 33}{space 2} .0809992{col 44}{space 1}    1.89{col 53}{space 3}0.058{col 61}{space 4}-.0054179{col 74}{space 3}  .312093
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1320181{col 33}{space 2}  .066111{col 44}{space 1}    2.00{col 53}{space 3}0.046{col 61}{space 4}  .002443{col 74}{space 3} .2615932
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1106987{col 33}{space 2}  .052035{col 44}{space 1}    2.13{col 53}{space 3}0.033{col 61}{space 4}  .008712{col 74}{space 3} .2126853
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0893793{col 33}{space 2} .0396458{col 44}{space 1}    2.25{col 53}{space 3}0.024{col 61}{space 4} .0116749{col 74}{space 3} .1670837
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0680599{col 33}{space 2} .0310343{col 44}{space 1}    2.19{col 53}{space 3}0.028{col 61}{space 4} .0072338{col 74}{space 3} .1288859
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0467404{col 33}{space 2} .0296924{col 44}{space 1}    1.57{col 53}{space 3}0.115{col 61}{space 4}-.0114556{col 74}{space 3} .1049365
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .025421{col 33}{space 2} .0364326{col 44}{space 1}    0.70{col 53}{space 3}0.485{col 61}{space 4}-.0459855{col 74}{space 3} .0968276
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0041016{col 33}{space 2} .0479605{col 44}{space 1}    0.09{col 53}{space 3}0.932{col 61}{space 4}-.0898992{col 74}{space 3} .0981024
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0172178{col 33}{space 2} .0616462{col 44}{space 1}   -0.28{col 53}{space 3}0.780{col 61}{space 4}-.1380422{col 74}{space 3} .1036066
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h5_polit12.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of right panel of figure 5 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: ir_diff{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * Appendix Table 7
. *esttab tab17 tab18 tab19 tab20 using estim_ir_int.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f)  title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. 
. 
. * H6: central bank independence
. 
. * a) Unweighted major cabinet changes
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit11_binary##c.cbi_irreg polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1479
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6883                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6186                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5697                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}16{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   108.29
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6575                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 96:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 31}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 32}{c |}{col 44}    Robust
{col 1}            log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 32}{c |}      Coef.{col 44}   Std. Err.{col 56}      t{col 64}   P>|t|{col 72}     [95% Con{col 85}f. Interval]
{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .810612{col 44}{space 2} .0396779{col 55}{space 1}   20.43{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .7312167{col 85}{space 3} .8900074
{txt}{space 10}1.sum_polit11_binary {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .042287{col 44}{space 2} .0285017{col 55}{space 1}    1.48{col 64}{space 3}0.143{col 72}{space 4}-.0147447{col 85}{space 3} .0993187
{txt}{space 21}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0274332{col 44}{space 2} .0196874{col 55}{space 1}    1.39{col 64}{space 3}0.169{col 72}{space 4}-.0119612{col 85}{space 3} .0668275
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
sum_polit11_binary#c.cbi_irreg {c |}
{space 28}1  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0131694{col 44}{space 2} .0243641{col 55}{space 1}   -0.54{col 64}{space 3}0.591{col 72}{space 4}-.0619219{col 85}{space 3}  .035583
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
{space 23}polity2 {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0058346{col 44}{space 2} .0028754{col 55}{space 1}    2.03{col 64}{space 3}0.047{col 72}{space 4} .0000809{col 85}{space 3} .0115882
{txt}{space 17}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0143009{col 44}{space 2} .0294864{col 55}{space 1}   -0.49{col 64}{space 3}0.629{col 72}{space 4}-.0733031{col 85}{space 3} .0447012
{txt}{space 16}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0024209{col 44}{space 2} .0019693{col 55}{space 1}   -1.23{col 64}{space 3}0.224{col 72}{space 4}-.0063614{col 85}{space 3} .0015196
{txt}{space 17}trade_balance {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0148876{col 44}{space 2} .0038687{col 55}{space 1}    3.85{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .0071464{col 85}{space 3} .0226288
{txt}{space 18}presidential {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0936462{col 44}{space 2} .0655862{col 55}{space 1}    1.43{col 64}{space 3}0.159{col 72}{space 4}-.0375915{col 85}{space 3} .2248839
{txt}{space 21}log_gdppc {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.1176807{col 44}{space 2} .0615031{col 55}{space 1}   -1.91{col 64}{space 3}0.061{col 72}{space 4}-.2407481{col 85}{space 3} .0053868
{txt}{space 20}gdp_growth {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} -.007298{col 44}{space 2} .0038959{col 55}{space 1}   -1.87{col 64}{space 3}0.066{col 72}{space 4}-.0150937{col 85}{space 3} .0004976
{txt}{space 23}log_pop {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .341813{col 44}{space 2} .2273841{col 55}{space 1}    1.50{col 64}{space 3}0.138{col 72}{space 4}-.1131815{col 85}{space 3} .7968075
{txt}{space 24}kaopen {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0144917{col 44}{space 2} .0125769{col 55}{space 1}   -1.15{col 64}{space 3}0.254{col 72}{space 4} -.039658{col 85}{space 3} .0106745
{txt}{space 18}currency_peg {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .030699{col 44}{space 2} .0359297{col 55}{space 1}    0.85{col 64}{space 3}0.396{col 72}{space 4}-.0411962{col 85}{space 3} .1025942
{txt}{space 15}currency_binary {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} -.124088{col 44}{space 2}  .029428{col 55}{space 1}   -4.22{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4}-.1829733{col 85}{space 3}-.0652027
{txt}{space 20}time_trend {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0004888{col 44}{space 2}  .005928{col 55}{space 1}   -0.08{col 64}{space 3}0.935{col 72}{space 4}-.0123506{col 85}{space 3} .0113731
{txt}{space 25}_cons {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-4.598485{col 44}{space 2} 3.980833{col 55}{space 1}   -1.16{col 64}{space 3}0.253{col 72}{space 4}-12.56411{col 85}{space 3} 3.367143
{txt}{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                       sigma_u {c |} {res} .51837828
                       {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28907688
                           {txt}rho {c |} {res} .76278786{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 31}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab21
{txt}
{com}. 
. * b) Weighted major cabinet changes (Model 11, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit11##c.cbi_irreg polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1477
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6873                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5765                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5272                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}16{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}    99.46
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.7012                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 99:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 34}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 35}{c |}{col 47}    Robust
{col 1}               log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 35}{c |}      Coef.{col 47}   Std. Err.{col 59}      t{col 67}   P>|t|{col 75}     [95% Con{col 88}f. Interval]
{hline 34}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 11}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .8085918{col 47}{space 2}  .040125{col 58}{space 1}   20.15{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} .7283018{col 88}{space 3} .8888818
{txt}{space 14}polity_frac_polit11 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0383413{col 47}{space 2} .0324471{col 58}{space 1}    1.18{col 67}{space 3}0.242{col 75}{space 4}-.0265853{col 88}{space 3} .1032678
{txt}{space 24}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0270676{col 47}{space 2} .0169108{col 58}{space 1}    1.60{col 67}{space 3}0.115{col 75}{space 4}-.0067709{col 88}{space 3} .0609061
{txt}{space 33} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit11#c.cbi_irreg {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0232343{col 47}{space 2} .0284453{col 58}{space 1}   -0.82{col 67}{space 3}0.417{col 75}{space 4}-.0801533{col 88}{space 3} .0336847
{txt}{space 33} {c |}
{space 26}polity2 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0055421{col 47}{space 2} .0030393{col 58}{space 1}    1.82{col 67}{space 3}0.073{col 75}{space 4}-.0005394{col 88}{space 3} .0116237
{txt}{space 20}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0131456{col 47}{space 2} .0298602{col 58}{space 1}   -0.44{col 67}{space 3}0.661{col 75}{space 4}-.0728956{col 88}{space 3} .0466045
{txt}{space 19}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0025122{col 47}{space 2} .0019476{col 58}{space 1}   -1.29{col 67}{space 3}0.202{col 75}{space 4}-.0064095{col 88}{space 3}  .001385
{txt}{space 20}trade_balance {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0147628{col 47}{space 2} .0038739{col 58}{space 1}    3.81{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} .0070111{col 88}{space 3} .0225144
{txt}{space 21}presidential {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0972519{col 47}{space 2} .0650712{col 58}{space 1}    1.49{col 67}{space 3}0.140{col 75}{space 4}-.0329552{col 88}{space 3}  .227459
{txt}{space 24}log_gdppc {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.1068715{col 47}{space 2} .0622118{col 58}{space 1}   -1.72{col 67}{space 3}0.091{col 75}{space 4} -.231357{col 88}{space 3} .0176141
{txt}{space 23}gdp_growth {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0074728{col 47}{space 2} .0038645{col 58}{space 1}   -1.93{col 67}{space 3}0.058{col 75}{space 4}-.0152056{col 88}{space 3} .0002601
{txt}{space 26}log_pop {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}  .395869{col 47}{space 2} .2282706{col 58}{space 1}    1.73{col 67}{space 3}0.088{col 75}{space 4}-.0608995{col 88}{space 3} .8526375
{txt}{space 27}kaopen {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0129919{col 47}{space 2} .0125736{col 58}{space 1}   -1.03{col 67}{space 3}0.306{col 75}{space 4}-.0381517{col 88}{space 3} .0121678
{txt}{space 21}currency_peg {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}  .027937{col 47}{space 2} .0359743{col 58}{space 1}    0.78{col 67}{space 3}0.441{col 75}{space 4}-.0440475{col 88}{space 3} .0999214
{txt}{space 18}currency_binary {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.1279236{col 47}{space 2} .0289349{col 58}{space 1}   -4.42{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4}-.1858221{col 88}{space 3} -.070025
{txt}{space 23}time_trend {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0017638{col 47}{space 2} .0060093{col 58}{space 1}   -0.29{col 67}{space 3}0.770{col 75}{space 4}-.0137885{col 88}{space 3} .0102609
{txt}{space 28}_cons {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-5.535939{col 47}{space 2}  4.00191{col 58}{space 1}   -1.38{col 67}{space 3}0.172{col 75}{space 4}-13.54374{col 88}{space 3} 2.471864
{txt}{hline 34}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                          sigma_u {c |} {res} .58524496
                          {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28893504
                              {txt}rho {c |} {res}  .8040272{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 34}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab22
{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit11) at(cbi_irreg = (-2.25(0.25)0)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1477
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 6}-2.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 6}-1.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 7}-1.5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 6}-1.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 7}-.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 8}-.5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 7}-.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit11 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0906184{col 33}{space 2} .0473088{col 44}{space 1}    1.92{col 53}{space 3}0.055{col 61}{space 4}-.0021051{col 74}{space 3}  .183342
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0848099{col 33}{space 2} .0412535{col 44}{space 1}    2.06{col 53}{space 3}0.040{col 61}{space 4} .0039545{col 74}{space 3} .1656653
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0790013{col 33}{space 2} .0355911{col 44}{space 1}    2.22{col 53}{space 3}0.026{col 61}{space 4}  .009244{col 74}{space 3} .1487585
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0731927{col 33}{space 2} .0305408{col 44}{space 1}    2.40{col 53}{space 3}0.017{col 61}{space 4} .0133338{col 74}{space 3} .1330516
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0673841{col 33}{space 2} .0264556{col 44}{space 1}    2.55{col 53}{space 3}0.011{col 61}{space 4} .0155321{col 74}{space 3} .1192361
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0615756{col 33}{space 2} .0238369{col 44}{space 1}    2.58{col 53}{space 3}0.010{col 61}{space 4} .0148561{col 74}{space 3}  .108295
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .055767{col 33}{space 2}  .023187{col 44}{space 1}    2.41{col 53}{space 3}0.016{col 61}{space 4} .0103212{col 74}{space 3} .1012128
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0499584{col 33}{space 2} .0246622{col 44}{space 1}    2.03{col 53}{space 3}0.043{col 61}{space 4} .0016214{col 74}{space 3} .0982954
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0441498{col 33}{space 2} .0279276{col 44}{space 1}    1.58{col 53}{space 3}0.114{col 61}{space 4}-.0105872{col 74}{space 3} .0988869
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0383413{col 33}{space 2} .0324471{col 44}{space 1}    1.18{col 53}{space 3}0.237{col 61}{space 4} -.025254{col 74}{space 3} .1019365
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h6_polit11.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of left panel of figure 6 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: cbi_irreg{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * c) Unweighted change in effective executive
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo sum_polit12_binary##c.cbi_irreg polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1479
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6884                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.6188                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5690                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}16{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}    99.80
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6618                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 96:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 31}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 32}{c |}{col 44}    Robust
{col 1}            log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 32}{c |}      Coef.{col 44}   Std. Err.{col 56}      t{col 64}   P>|t|{col 72}     [95% Con{col 85}f. Interval]
{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .8112748{col 44}{space 2} .0401017{col 55}{space 1}   20.23{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .7310315{col 85}{space 3} .8915181
{txt}{space 10}1.sum_polit12_binary {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .054612{col 44}{space 2} .0288258{col 55}{space 1}    1.89{col 64}{space 3}0.063{col 72}{space 4}-.0030682{col 85}{space 3} .1122922
{txt}{space 21}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0197041{col 44}{space 2} .0147651{col 55}{space 1}    1.33{col 64}{space 3}0.187{col 72}{space 4}-.0098408{col 85}{space 3}  .049249
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
sum_polit12_binary#c.cbi_irreg {c |}
{space 28}1  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0033854{col 44}{space 2} .0252588{col 55}{space 1}   -0.13{col 64}{space 3}0.894{col 72}{space 4} -.053928{col 85}{space 3} .0471573
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
{space 23}polity2 {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0057174{col 44}{space 2} .0028379{col 55}{space 1}    2.01{col 64}{space 3}0.049{col 72}{space 4} .0000389{col 85}{space 3}  .011396
{txt}{space 17}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0225097{col 44}{space 2} .0325272{col 55}{space 1}   -0.69{col 64}{space 3}0.492{col 72}{space 4}-.0875964{col 85}{space 3} .0425771
{txt}{space 16}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0023271{col 44}{space 2} .0019317{col 55}{space 1}   -1.20{col 64}{space 3}0.233{col 72}{space 4}-.0061923{col 85}{space 3} .0015382
{txt}{space 17}trade_balance {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0149654{col 44}{space 2} .0038556{col 55}{space 1}    3.88{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .0072505{col 85}{space 3} .0226804
{txt}{space 18}presidential {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .1040419{col 44}{space 2} .0650609{col 55}{space 1}    1.60{col 64}{space 3}0.115{col 72}{space 4}-.0261446{col 85}{space 3} .2342284
{txt}{space 21}log_gdppc {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.1159918{col 44}{space 2} .0624698{col 55}{space 1}   -1.86{col 64}{space 3}0.068{col 72}{space 4}-.2409935{col 85}{space 3} .0090099
{txt}{space 20}gdp_growth {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0073442{col 44}{space 2} .0039197{col 55}{space 1}   -1.87{col 64}{space 3}0.066{col 72}{space 4}-.0151875{col 85}{space 3}  .000499
{txt}{space 23}log_pop {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .3465647{col 44}{space 2} .2220727{col 55}{space 1}    1.56{col 64}{space 3}0.124{col 72}{space 4}-.0978016{col 85}{space 3} .7909311
{txt}{space 24}kaopen {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} -.014277{col 44}{space 2} .0125399{col 55}{space 1}   -1.14{col 64}{space 3}0.260{col 72}{space 4}-.0393693{col 85}{space 3} .0108153
{txt}{space 18}currency_peg {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0296193{col 44}{space 2} .0354691{col 55}{space 1}    0.84{col 64}{space 3}0.407{col 72}{space 4}-.0413541{col 85}{space 3} .1005928
{txt}{space 15}currency_binary {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} -.125207{col 44}{space 2} .0295101{col 55}{space 1}   -4.24{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4}-.1842565{col 85}{space 3}-.0661574
{txt}{space 20}time_trend {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0004642{col 44}{space 2}  .005948{col 55}{space 1}   -0.08{col 64}{space 3}0.938{col 72}{space 4} -.012366{col 85}{space 3} .0114377
{txt}{space 25}_cons {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-4.687355{col 44}{space 2} 3.898245{col 55}{space 1}   -1.20{col 64}{space 3}0.234{col 72}{space 4}-12.48773{col 85}{space 3} 3.113016
{txt}{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                       sigma_u {c |} {res} .52082279
                       {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28902469
                           {txt}rho {c |} {res} .76455119{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 31}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab23
{txt}
{com}. 
. * d) Weighted changes in effective executive (Model 12, Table 1)
. xtreg log_fi_res_totl_mo lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo c.polity_frac_polit12##c.cbi_irreg polity2 sum_imftotal5 ne_imp_gnfs_zs trade_balance presidential   log_gdppc gdp_growth log_pop kaopen currency_peg  currency_binary time_trend, fe vce(cluster cowcode)

{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      = {res}     1477
{txt}Group variable: {res}cowcode                         {txt}Number of groups   = {res}       60

{txt}R-sq:  within  = {res}0.6873                         {txt}Obs per group: min = {res}        1
{txt}       between = {res}0.5965                                        {txt}avg = {res}     24.6
{txt}       overall = {res}0.5452                                        {txt}max = {res}       33

                                                {txt}F({res}16{txt},{res}59{txt})           = {res}   104.58
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb)  = {res}-0.6842                        {txt}Prob > F           =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 99:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:60} clusters in cowcode)}
{hline 34}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 35}{c |}{col 47}    Robust
{col 1}               log_fi_res_totl_mo{col 35}{c |}      Coef.{col 47}   Std. Err.{col 59}      t{col 67}   P>|t|{col 75}     [95% Con{col 88}f. Interval]
{hline 34}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 11}lag_log_fi_res_totl_mo {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .8076834{col 47}{space 2}  .040456{col 58}{space 1}   19.96{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} .7267312{col 88}{space 3} .8886356
{txt}{space 14}polity_frac_polit12 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0616132{col 47}{space 2} .0375415{col 58}{space 1}    1.64{col 67}{space 3}0.106{col 75}{space 4} -.013507{col 88}{space 3} .1367335
{txt}{space 24}cbi_irreg {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0179485{col 47}{space 2} .0148211{col 58}{space 1}    1.21{col 67}{space 3}0.231{col 75}{space 4}-.0117086{col 88}{space 3} .0476055
{txt}{space 33} {c |}
c.polity_frac_polit12#c.cbi_irreg {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0079337{col 47}{space 2} .0345528{col 58}{space 1}   -0.23{col 67}{space 3}0.819{col 75}{space 4}-.0770737{col 88}{space 3} .0612063
{txt}{space 33} {c |}
{space 26}polity2 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0052212{col 47}{space 2}  .002902{col 58}{space 1}    1.80{col 67}{space 3}0.077{col 75}{space 4}-.0005857{col 88}{space 3} .0110281
{txt}{space 20}sum_imftotal5 {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0197583{col 47}{space 2}  .031895{col 58}{space 1}   -0.62{col 67}{space 3}0.538{col 75}{space 4}  -.08358{col 88}{space 3} .0440634
{txt}{space 19}ne_imp_gnfs_zs {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0023354{col 47}{space 2} .0019679{col 58}{space 1}   -1.19{col 67}{space 3}0.240{col 75}{space 4}-.0062732{col 88}{space 3} .0016023
{txt}{space 20}trade_balance {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0148099{col 47}{space 2} .0038793{col 58}{space 1}    3.82{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4} .0070474{col 88}{space 3} .0225724
{txt}{space 21}presidential {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .1094888{col 47}{space 2} .0640413{col 58}{space 1}    1.71{col 67}{space 3}0.093{col 75}{space 4}-.0186575{col 88}{space 3} .2376351
{txt}{space 24}log_gdppc {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.1087261{col 47}{space 2} .0629989{col 58}{space 1}   -1.73{col 67}{space 3}0.090{col 75}{space 4}-.2347866{col 88}{space 3} .0173344
{txt}{space 23}gdp_growth {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} -.007397{col 47}{space 2} .0038866{col 58}{space 1}   -1.90{col 67}{space 3}0.062{col 75}{space 4}-.0151741{col 88}{space 3}   .00038
{txt}{space 26}log_pop {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .3768251{col 47}{space 2} .2254531{col 58}{space 1}    1.67{col 67}{space 3}0.100{col 75}{space 4}-.0743056{col 88}{space 3} .8279558
{txt}{space 27}kaopen {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.0127581{col 47}{space 2} .0127224{col 58}{space 1}   -1.00{col 67}{space 3}0.320{col 75}{space 4}-.0382155{col 88}{space 3} .0126994
{txt}{space 21}currency_peg {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} .0311143{col 47}{space 2} .0354037{col 58}{space 1}    0.88{col 67}{space 3}0.383{col 75}{space 4}-.0397283{col 88}{space 3} .1019569
{txt}{space 18}currency_binary {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-.1281185{col 47}{space 2} .0291973{col 58}{space 1}   -4.39{col 67}{space 3}0.000{col 75}{space 4}-.1865421{col 88}{space 3}-.0696949
{txt}{space 23}time_trend {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2} -.001341{col 47}{space 2} .0060623{col 58}{space 1}   -0.22{col 67}{space 3}0.826{col 75}{space 4}-.0134717{col 88}{space 3} .0107897
{txt}{space 28}_cons {c |}{col 35}{res}{space 2}-5.216218{col 47}{space 2} 3.958191{col 58}{space 1}   -1.32{col 67}{space 3}0.193{col 75}{space 4}-13.13654{col 88}{space 3} 2.704104
{txt}{hline 34}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                          sigma_u {c |} {res} .55621768
                          {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .28893449
                              {txt}rho {c |} {res} .78749969{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 34}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. est store tab24
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. margins, dydx(polity_frac_polit12) at(cbi_irreg = (-2.25(0.25)0)) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1477
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:polity_frac_polit12}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 6}-2.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 9}-2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 6}-1.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 7}-1.5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 6}-1.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 9}-1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 7}-.75}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 8}-.5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 7}-.25}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:cbi_irreg}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33} Delta-method
{col 21}{c |}      dy/dx{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}polity_frac_polit12 {txt}{c |}
{space 16}_at {c |}
{space 17}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .079464{col 33}{space 2} .0585149{col 44}{space 1}    1.36{col 53}{space 3}0.174{col 61}{space 4}-.0352232{col 74}{space 3} .1941512
{txt}{space 17}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0774806{col 33}{space 2} .0510216{col 44}{space 1}    1.52{col 53}{space 3}0.129{col 61}{space 4}-.0225199{col 74}{space 3} .1774811
{txt}{space 17}3  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0754972{col 33}{space 2} .0439505{col 44}{space 1}    1.72{col 53}{space 3}0.086{col 61}{space 4}-.0106441{col 74}{space 3} .1616385
{txt}{space 17}4  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0735137{col 33}{space 2} .0375409{col 44}{space 1}    1.96{col 53}{space 3}0.050{col 61}{space 4}-.0000651{col 74}{space 3} .1470926
{txt}{space 17}5  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0715303{col 33}{space 2} .0321906{col 44}{space 1}    2.22{col 53}{space 3}0.026{col 61}{space 4} .0084379{col 74}{space 3} .1346227
{txt}{space 17}6  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0695469{col 33}{space 2} .0285024{col 44}{space 1}    2.44{col 53}{space 3}0.015{col 61}{space 4} .0136833{col 74}{space 3} .1254106
{txt}{space 17}7  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0675635{col 33}{space 2}  .027162{col 44}{space 1}    2.49{col 53}{space 3}0.013{col 61}{space 4}  .014327{col 74}{space 3}    .1208
{txt}{space 17}8  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0655801{col 33}{space 2} .0285026{col 44}{space 1}    2.30{col 53}{space 3}0.021{col 61}{space 4}  .009716{col 74}{space 3} .1214442
{txt}{space 17}9  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0635967{col 33}{space 2}  .032191{col 44}{space 1}    1.98{col 53}{space 3}0.048{col 61}{space 4} .0005034{col 74}{space 3} .1266899
{txt}{space 16}10  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0616132{col 33}{space 2} .0375415{col 44}{space 1}    1.64{col 53}{space 3}0.101{col 61}{space 4}-.0119667{col 74}{space 3} .1351931
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *estout using "h6_polit12.tab", c("b se") replace
. * Replication of left panel of figure 6 in main text
. marginsplot

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: cbi_irreg{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * Appendix Table 8
. **esttab tab21 tab22 tab23 tab24 using log_cbi.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f) scalars(ll) bic title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. 
. 
. * To create the same table as Table 1 in main text:
. 
. *esttab tab2 tab4 tab6 tab8 tab10 tab12 tab15 tab16 tab18 tab20 tab22 tab24 using all_w_estims.tex, b(%8.3f) se(%8.3f) title("Log Reserves in Months of Imports") star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) tex replace label
. 
. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/liammcgrath/Documents/Academic/Research/reserves/replication_materials/replication_main_log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}17 Dec 2015, 00:32:50
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}